INDEPTH PROJECTION FOR PRECIPITATION TILL THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY 2012

THE STRENGTH OF MJO IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND ANOMALOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DOMINANT OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT.

THE ELNINO CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE SPETEMBER PERIOD, PRESENTLY THOUGH THE ENSO IS NEUTRAL.(THE ELNINO IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS).

AFTER EXHAUSTIVE ANALYSIS, PRESENTLY THE FORECASTING MODELS SUGGESTS THE FOLLOWING:-

28/06/2012 M/E:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN.*

29/06/2012 MORNING:- NO CHANCE OF RAIN*

EVENING CHANCE OF VERY LITTLE RAIN AT NAGPUR (3-5mm), BUT WESTERN PARTS OF VIDARBHA TILL AKOLA AND BEYOND(20-30mm) AND SOUTH CHHATTISGARH (AROUND JAGDALPUR) WILL EXPERIENCE GOOD RAINS (50-60mm).

30/06/2012 M/E:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT NAGPUR. IN THE EVENING, EAST OF NAGPUR IN VIDARBHA (AROUND GONDIA) WILL GET LITTLE RAIN (10-15mm) AND GOOD RAINS IN SOUTH CHHATTISGARH (30-50mm).

01/07/2012 MORNING:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN*

01/07/2012:-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE EVENING IN THE ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA AND CHHATTISGARH.

ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA TILL MUMBAI WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY (AT SOME PLACES) RAINFALL.

AREAS AROUND PUNE AND KOLHAPUR WILL ALSO GET VERY GOOD RAINS (50-60mm).

02/07/2012:-MORNING:-THE COASTAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW PARTS IN VIDARBHA AND CHHATTISGARH (EAST OF NAGPUR AND SOUTH OF NAGPUR, BUT NOT AT NAGPUR).

02/07/2012:-EVENING:-UPTO 30mm ALMOST AT EVERY PLACE IN THE ENTIRE VIDARBHA AND CHHATTISGARH, INCLUDING NAGPUR.

WESTERN MAHARASHTRA, PARTICULARLY AREA FROM PUNE TO KOLHAPUR AND UPTO GOA WILL GET AROUND 50-80mmOF RAIN IN SOME POCKETS AND IN CHTG, AREAS AROUND JAGDALPUR WILL GET UPTO 90mm OF RAIN.

03/07/2012:-MORNING:-FEW RAINS IN E VID* AND SOME PARTS OF CHTG.

03/07/2012:-EVENING:- SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS EVENING WITH REDUCED INTENSITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.

04/07/2012:-MORNING:-NO RAINS AT NAGPUR AND LIGHT RAINS IN CHTG TO CONTINUE.

04/07/2012:-EVENING:- AGAIN,SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS EVENING WITH STILL MORE REDUCED INTENSITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.

05/07/2012:-MORNING:-SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS MORNING.

05/07/2012:-EVENING:-NO RAINS AT NAGPUR BUT AREAS IN CHTG WILL CONTINUE TO GET RAINS.

06/07/2012:-MORNING:-UPTO 10-20mm OF RAIN AT NAGPUR.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN CHTG AND SOME PARTS OF VID BUT RAINS BEYOND AKOLA AND INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA WILL RECEDE IN THE MORNING.

06/07/2012:-EVENING:-ENTIRE VID AND CHTG WILL GET GOOD TO VERY GOOD RAINS (UPTO 30mms EACH IN VID) FOR THE NEXT 24 hrs. CHTG WILL GET HEAVY TO VERY RAINS (50-80m) IN THE EVENING OF 07^th JUL. 2012.

FARMERS IN VID CAN START SOWING THEIR SEEDS FROM FIRST WEEK-END OF JULY 2012.

(AROUND 10% DEVIATION IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND 20% IN TIMING IS ASSUMED,*=NAGPUR).

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

2nd WEEK (WEAK??) OF MONSOON IN NAGPUR

WE ARE ENTERING A BREAK-MONSOON PHASE FROM 25^th IN CENTRAL INDIA, AS THE RINFALL HAS STARTED RECEEDING SIGNIFICANTLY.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT RAIPUR-BILASPUR IN CHHATTISGARH REGION FROM 22^nd TO 24^th JUNE 2012.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR UP/BIHAR/JHARKHAND WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY.

THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS UPTO 850mb WILL CONTINUE TO BE Wly AND THE WEEK THROUGHOUT WILL BE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AT NAGPUR AND CENTRAL INDIA.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

DELAYED MONSOON IN 2012 AT NAGPUR

ALL THE METEOROLOGISTS ARE VERY CAUTIOUSLY TREADING TO DERIVE THE RATHER INCONSISTENT OUTPUT OF SEVERAL FORECASTING MODELS, MORE SO FOR DECLARING THE ONSET OF MONSOON.

THE CHART PATTERNS PREDICT SOME RAIN FALL TO OCCUR IN VIDARBHA (ESPECIALLY IN NAGPUR) ON SAT. THE 16^th JUNE 2012 AND SUN THE 17^th JUNE.

THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE DAY(SAT EVE. TILL SUN EVE.) MAY NOT EXCEED 10-12 mms BUT THE NAGPURIANS WILL BE GREETED BY MORNING RAINS WHEN THEY WAKE UP ON SUNDAY.

SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR PRESENCE ON 18^th JUNE 2012 AND 19^th JUNE 2012 WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM.

 IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE THE ONSET OF MONSOON AT NAGPUR, IT CAN BE DONE ON 17^th , EVEN THOUGH ALL THE PARAMETERS (CRITERIA) MAY NOT BE SATISFIED FOR DECLARING THE ONSET OF MONSOON.

THE WEEK TILL 21^st JUNE WILL BE CLOUDY AND THERE AFTER TILL 25^th JUNE 2012 ABSOLUTELY DRY WITH SCORCHING SUN AND HUMIDITY IN THE RANGE OF 40-60% MAKING THE FEEL-VERY-UNCOFRTABLE.

THE SOWING SEASONS ARE CHANGING AND THEREFORE THE FARMERS IN VIDARBHA SHOULD NOT MAKE A HURRY TO SOW THEIR SEEDS TILL THE SECOND/THIRD WEEK OF JULY 2012.

PRESENTLY THERE IS AN INDICATION OF EASTERLIES AT 200hpa BUT NOT STRONG TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE. THE POSITION MIGHT IMPROVE BY JUNE END OR JULY FIRST WEEK.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

MONSOON AT NAGPUR IN 2012

THE MONSOON IS EXPECTED AROUND 20^th JUNE (AT NAGPUR) AND THE DELAY IN ONSET OVER KERALA IS NOT A NEWS; NOW.

THE VARIABILITY IN THE OLR ANOMALIES IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AND SINCE APRIL 2012 THE NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE ANOMALIES (IN THE ENSO3.4 SST) INDICATES UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR PRECIPITATION.

THE OCEAN NINO INDEX  WHICH IS A MEASUREMENT WHICH HELPS IN ASSESSING AND MONITORING ENSO CONDITIONS HOWEVER DOES NOT INDICATE A FULL FLEDGED ELNINO CONDITION (FIVE CONSECUTIVE OVERLAPPING OF THREE MONTHS SEASON IS NECESSARY).

THE ENSO PLAYS A DOMINANT ROLE IN CLIMATE AND MONSOON VARIABILITY (ATLEAST IN THE LAST ABOUT FOUR DECADES).

ISOLATED RAINS COUPLED WITH THUNDERSTORM IN WESTERN MAHARASHTRA IN THE MUMBAI-PUNE AREA (THE GOA COASTAL AREA WILL RECEIVE GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD) ON 05^th JUNE 2012.

PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE 2012 AND IN SOME PARTS OF VID DURING THE PERIOD 02^ND TO 04^TH JUNE WITH FEW DROPS OF RAIN HERE AND THERE WITH POSSIBILITY OF COUPLED THUNDERSTORM.

THE MAX TEMPS AT NAGPUR WILL SEE A DROP OF ABOUT 3-4 Deg Cel ON 02^nd JUNE AND THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL THEREAFTER WHICH IS ROUTINE.

WEAK MONSOON IN 2012 LIKELY (??)

I HAVE BEEN WORKING OUT TO TRY AND GET AS MUCH DATA AS I COULD COLLECT SO AS TO REACH AS NEAR AS IT COULD BE TO THE "CORRECT FORECAST". NOW IT WOULD BE EASIER FOR ME TO FINALIZE MY VIEWS ON THE "MONSOON IN 2012", AS I WANT TO SHARE THIS NEWS WITH YOU ALL HERE:-

Source: 

The dreaded El Nino weather phenomenon is  set to appear during the second half of the southwest monsoon, which may cause less-than-expected rains in August and September.

El Nino had earlier hit the Indian monsoon in 2009, when the country faced a severe drought.

This time, its impact is not clear as of now, but if there are excessive breaks in the monsoon, crops of paddy, oilseeds and pulses could bear the brunt.

Senior officials of the India Meteorological Department said they were now more confident that El Nino would indeed appear during the second half of the southwest season, compared to April when the last official forecast was made.

At the time of the April forecast, El Nino was in a neutral state.

"Between April and May-end, weather conditions have changed and we are now more certain that El Nino will make an appearance during the second half of the four-month southwest monsoon," a senior IMD official, who did not want to be identified, told Business Standard.
He said weather models operational across the globe showed this.
However, the intensity of El Nino is not clear, he added.
El Nino, which is the generic term for warming of air surface pressure over the tropical west Pacific, causes low rains.
Its coverage includes the Indian sub-continent.
In 2009, the drought it had caused was one of the worst in three decades.
The rains in 2009 were almost 23 per cent below normal, leading to a sharp increase in prices of food items, particularly of fruits and vegetables.
Foodgrain production dropped almost seven per cent, while overall farm production had contracted 0.1 per cent in 2009-10, year-on-year.
This year, if El Nino causes any intense break in the southwest monsoon, it could harm production of paddy (de-husked rice), oilseeds and pulses, as most crops planted in June reach their early maturing stage around August.
About 55 per cent of arable land in India is rain-fed.
Already, there are sceptical voices over India achieving 7.6 per cent growth in 2012-13, as was assumed in the Budget.
Though agriculture contributes less than a fifth to India's gross domestic product, it is still the largest employer and, hence, crucial for demand generation in rural areas.
Besides, good farm production assumes importance this time since food inflation is already in double digits, according to the latest data for April.
Eminent agricultural economist and chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Ashok Gulati, in a recent interview to Business Standard had said this time rain could be erratic in northwestern parts of the country but normal over the southern and central parts.
He based his argument on the unusually long winter and IMD's not-so-perfect record in predicting low monsoon years.
IMD officials said their prediction for onset and subsequent movement of the southwest monsoon over the Andaman islands and thereafter over the Kerala coast would, however  remain unchanged.
Earlier this month, the Met office had said the southwest monsoon would hit the Kerala coast around June 1, well within the normal date of arrival.
Its latest statement, issued on Saturday also said: "The date of onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be June 1, with a model error of plus or minus four days."
The southwest monsoon enters the Indian mainland from the Kerala coast in June and then covers the entire country in the subsequent months.

It starts retreating from west Rajasthan around September, after completing its four-month journey over India.
The four-month monsoon season provides around 70 per cent of total annual moisture that India receives. IMD in its first official forecast for 2012 southwest monsoon released last month had said that rains would be by and large normal across the country.
"Rains this year would be around 99 per cent of long period average.
"Normal monsoon is considered when rains are between 96 to 104 per cent of LPA," IMD had said.
LPA is the average rainfall across the country in 50 years starting from 1941. It is estimated at 89 centimetres.
Milind Phadke
+919890317557
http://milindphadke.blogspot.com
milind1966@gmail.com