Conditions favourable for onset of Monsoon over Andamans

 Conditions are favourable for advancement of Monsoon-2026 over Andaman and Nicobar islands and further into BoB.

These inputs are from my friend and senior colleague Mr a s khan :--

Good news: Conditions are becoming highly favorable for monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during May 20-30. As per GFS, a nice upper-level anticyclone is likely to form over Central India, pushing the westerly jet stream further north and stabilizing easterlies over most parts of South India. This indicates that the mean tropospheric meridional temperature gradient is likely to reverse rapidly after May 20 and will also allow the angular momentum conserving overturning monsoon circulation to stabilize over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and some parts of South India by the end of the month.  

Video: 150 hPa winds in GFS on May 25 from Windy

Courtesy 👆🏻Shri AS Khan

Monsoon 2026

As analysed earlier the weather patterns behave differently every year.

A low pressure area in BoB around mid-may could trigger early arrival of monsoon over India. 

Various weather models indicate faster advancement of monsoon in 2026 over Andamans and Kerala. 

This could also be recorded as earliest ever onset of monsoon over India. 

The rainfall variability in 2026 may be very wide from drought zones to flood zones. Central India specially Nagpur and around is more likely to be normal with some variability of longer than usual break-monsoon phases, W-vid is very likely to see above normal rainfall in monsoon-2026.

Always refer to IMD.

Insights to Monsoon 2026

Amidst widely circulated news about EL NINO making it's presence felt, probably strongest ever,as reported manytimes elsewhere, the pre-monsoon activities has begun since last 2-3 days in central India and noticeable downfall in maximum temperatures alongwith changes in the patterns of upper wind flow and some cloud coverage shows that peak-summer is almost over. Though year 2026 is predicted to be EL NINO year the Monsoon in Vidarbha region is likely to be normal and parts of West vid like Akola Buldhana may record more than normal or excess rainfall in the season. There is no need to panick for farmers of Vidarbha region. Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

RAINFALL FORECAST TILL 15th JULY 2021 IN AND AROUND NAGPUR REGION

 RAINFALL FORECAST TILL 15th JULY 2021 IN AND AROUND NAGPUR REGION

पर्जन्यमान अंदाज

पुनर्वसू नक्षत्र पर्जन्य योग

6 जुलै  ते 20 जुलै 2021

ह्या वर्षी रोहिणी  व मृग नक्षत्रात पाऊस बेताचा  पण चांगला झाला,  मागे भाकीत केल्या प्रमाणे आद्रा नक्षत्रात पाऊस तुरळक ठिकाणी तो पण तुरळक पडला.

सुर्यानी दि 6 जुलै ला सकाळी 2.34वा पुनर्वसू नक्षत्रात प्रवेश केला. सर्याच्या ह्या नक्षत्रात असताना चंद्र रोहिणी ते अनुराधा ह्या नक्षत्रातून भ्रमण करत आहे.

सध्या मंगळ कर्क राशीत आश्लेषा  नक्षत्रातुन भ्रमण करत आहे,तो 20 ता  सिंह ह्याअग्नी तत्वाच्या राशीत भ्रमण करेल.बुध मृग ते पुनर्वसू, शुक्र आश्लेषा ते मघा नक्षत्रातुन , गुरू - शततारका, शनी- श्रवण, राहू- रोहिणी, व केतू- अनुराधा नक्षत्रातुन भ्रमण करत आहेत

एकंदरीत ह्या ग्रहांच्या  गोचरभ्रमण  स्थिती व गती,  प्रमाणे 

दि 7 जुलै ला पूर्व विदर्भातील चंद्रपूर, गडचिरोली जिल्ह्यातील काही ठिकाणी जोरदार वाऱ्यासह पण तुरळक पाऊस पडेल, 9 ता महाराष्ट्रतील पुष्कळ जिल्ह्यात पर्जन्य वृष्टी होईल. 12 ता. वाऱ्याची दिशा बदलेल व बंगालच्या उपसागरात कमी दाबाचा पट्टा तयार होईल ह्या मुळे  12 ते 16 जुलै दरम्यानच्या  नाशिक, अहमदनगर, मध्य महाराष्ट्र,  मराठवाड्यातील काही जिल्हे, तसेच पश्चिम महाराष्ट्र तील  पुणे,सोलापूर, सातारा, ह्या जिल्हात काही ठिकाणी पाऊस पडेल.

पश्चिम विदर्भातील अमरावती,अकोला, बुलढाणा,ह्या बहुतांश जिह्यात 14 ता नंतरच पाऊस येईल तो पण बेताचाच पडेल.  जोरदार वारा सुटेल, विजा चमकतील पण पाऊस तुरळक ठिकाणी तुरळक पडेल, साधारण 13-14 मिनिट किंवा जास्तीत जास्त 39 मिनिटे  पावसाची एक सर येईल.

पूर्व विदर्भातील चंद्रपूर, गडचिरोली, गोंदिया, भंडारा, वर्धा,नागपूर ह्या जिल्ह्यात पाऊस 14 - 16 जुलै दरम्यान  येईल.

15 जुलै नंतर पाऊस उत्तर भारत कडे आपला प्रवास सुरु करेल.

एकंदरीत संपूर्ण नक्षत्रात पाऊस सरासरी पेक्ष्या कमी आहे. सर्व शेतकरी बांधवांनी त्या प्रमाणे पिकांचे नियोजन करावे

पुढील पर्जन्यमानअंदाज 21जुलै ला.....

डॉ मुकुंद मोहोळकर

Ph.D (वेदांग ज्योतिष्य)

Ph D(Business Managemant)

9823116709

(SHARED HERE WITH DUE PERMISSION)

Nagpur weather outlook till 15th Jan 2017

The atmosphere will be stable with not much change in the weather parameters at Nagpur for the period 1^st fortnight of 2017.

The Max temp will see a gradual rise till 32 deg cel for about a week, then a gradual decline for 2-3 deg from the peak. A direct 2 deg fall is expected on 11^th Jan 2017 and in range (+2/-1) for about two days and then gradual rise till 31 deg cel.

The min temps will be in line too, rising and falling with max correspondingly and will be in the range 15-18 deg cel (climbing till 06^th jan) and six deg fall in next about five days (6-11 jan) and remain the range…..14 (-2/+1) deg cel.

The wind speed will however continue to be light to moderate throughout the fortnight.

Kite flying enthusiasts, may; however; feel dampened spirit; due to light wind from 12-15 jan 2017. The wind gusts will be moderate from 08^th jan ’17 till 12^th jan ’17 and will be 10-12 knots (10-20 kmph).

No chance of precipitation at Nagpur till 15^th jan 2017.
Always refer to authorized sites like IMD for wx forecasts.
(data source imd and various world weather sites)
Milind Phadke
+919890317557

2016 favourite songs

RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND VIDARBHA DURING THE 2nd WEEK OF JULY

QUANTITATIVELY GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE THERE IN NAGPUR AND ENTIRE VIDARBHA DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.

THE UAC OVER ORISSA-JHARKHAND ON 10th JULY WILL BRING IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE IN NAGPUR AND AROUND.

ISOLATED PLACES IN VIDARBHA WILL EXPERIENCE VERY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON 10th AND 11th JULY 2014.

THE RAIN ACTIVITY STARTS INCREASING INTERMITTENTLY FROM 09TH JULY AND WILL BE ACTIVE TILL WEEKEND AND THEREAFTER DECREASE FROM SAT EVENING.

SUBSEQUENT WEEK FROM 13th JULY WILL GIVE ABOUT 70% OF NORMAL(for the week) RAINFALL IN VIDARBHA.

W-VID AND S-VID THE RAINS WILL BE ABOUT 95% OF NORMAL.

THE GROUND WIND AND UPTO 900mb  IS SSWly THE SLP MAY DROP TO 998mb.

FARMERS CAN SAFELY GO FOR SOWING NOW.

THOSE WHO NEED CONSULTANCY ABOUT AGRICULTURE AND NEW TECHNIQUES MAY VISIT :- http://www.avaniindia.com/agri?s=avani.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

LIKELY REVIVAL OF MONSOON OVER VIDARBHA

A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF VIDARBHA DOES NOT MEAN REVIVAL OF MONSOON AS SEVERAL CONDITIONS NEEDS TO BE SATISFIED.

HOWEVER WEEK-END RAINS OVER PARTS OF VIDARBHA,MOSTLY CONVECTIVE, PATCHY,WITH THUNDERSTORM IN SOME PARTS OF VIDARBHA WILL BE THERE.

WE STILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS REGARDING SOWING BUT IN SOUTH VID (CHANDRAPUR REGN) FARMERS CAN SAFELY GO IN FOR SOWING AFTER 05th JULY.

RAINFALL ACTIVITY MOSTLY DURING EVENING Hrs MAY START IN NAGPUR AND AROUND WILL START FROM FRIDAY 04th JULY AND WILL EXTEND FOR ABOUT A WEEK. FROM THE START.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

Monsoon in Nagpur region,present situation

WITH THE ONSET OF MONSOON BEING DECLARED ON 19th JUNE 2014, COVERING MOST OF VID INCLUDING NGP, A MONSOON-BREAK LIKE SITUATION SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFING.
THAT IS WHY NEW TERMS IN METEOROLOGY LIKE 'DRY MONSOON' GAINS MOMENTUM.
THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE 2014 IN THE NGP REGN WILL SEE THE DAY TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE WITH UPPER WINDS BEING MAINLY W-NWly, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WEEK END.
BEYOND THIS THERE IS, AT PRESENT, NO SUBSTANTIAL ADVANCEMENT OF MONSOON.
FARMERS IN THE REGION MAY STILL HOLD FROM SOWING TILL AT LEAST TWO GOOD SPELLS OF RAIN, UPON REVIVAL OF MONSOON.
Milind Phadke
+919890317557
milind1966@gmail.com

MONSOON IN 2014 FOR THE NAGPUR REGION

THE MONSOON IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ‘DRY’IN 2014, AS IT IS WELL KNOWN, THE MUCH HYPED AND PUBLICIZED EL-NINO FACTOR.

FOR ALL THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE CHANGING WORLD WIDE, DEPENDING UPON THE GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS NEW TERMS HAVE TO BE COINED FOR METEOROLOGY LIKE ‘COLD-SUMMER’, ‘WARM-WINTER’,’DRY-MONSOON’ ETC.

MONSOON IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED AS SET OVER VID AND CHTG REGN PROBABLY COVERING NAGPUR ALSO.

SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE SET (NOT ALL) FOR ADVANCE OF MONSOON FROM THE PRESENT NLM.

IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE THE ONSET OF MONSOON IN 2014 IT CAN BE DONE BEFORE 21^ST OF 22^ND JUNE FOR NAGPUR.

HOWEVER, IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE ONSET DRY SPELL WILL FOLLOW AND THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DUE TO UPPER WINDS TURNING AGAIN Wly-NWly.

THE FARMERS ARE ADVISED TO REFRAIN FROM SOWING TILL 1^ST WEEK OF JULY, TO AVOID LOSSES.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557