THE STRENGTH OF MJO IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND ANOMALOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DOMINANT OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT.
THE ELNINO CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE SPETEMBER PERIOD, PRESENTLY THOUGH THE ENSO IS NEUTRAL.(THE ELNINO IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS).
AFTER EXHAUSTIVE ANALYSIS, PRESENTLY THE FORECASTING MODELS SUGGESTS THE FOLLOWING:-
28/06/2012 M/E:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN.*
29/06/2012 MORNING:- NO CHANCE OF RAIN*
EVENING CHANCE OF VERY LITTLE RAIN AT NAGPUR (3-5mm), BUT WESTERN PARTS OF VIDARBHA TILL AKOLA AND BEYOND(20-30mm) AND SOUTH CHHATTISGARH (AROUND JAGDALPUR) WILL EXPERIENCE GOOD RAINS (50-60mm).
30/06/2012 M/E:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT NAGPUR. IN THE EVENING, EAST OF NAGPUR IN VIDARBHA (AROUND GONDIA) WILL GET LITTLE RAIN (10-15mm) AND GOOD RAINS IN SOUTH CHHATTISGARH (30-50mm).
01/07/2012 MORNING:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN*
01/07/2012:-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE EVENING IN THE ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA AND CHHATTISGARH.
ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA TILL MUMBAI WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY (AT SOME PLACES) RAINFALL.
AREAS AROUND PUNE AND KOLHAPUR WILL ALSO GET VERY GOOD RAINS (50-60mm).
02/07/2012:-MORNING:-THE COASTAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW PARTS IN VIDARBHA AND CHHATTISGARH (EAST OF NAGPUR AND SOUTH OF NAGPUR, BUT NOT AT NAGPUR).
02/07/2012:-EVENING:-UPTO 30mm ALMOST AT EVERY PLACE IN THE ENTIRE VIDARBHA AND CHHATTISGARH, INCLUDING NAGPUR.
WESTERN MAHARASHTRA, PARTICULARLY AREA FROM PUNE TO KOLHAPUR AND UPTO GOA WILL GET AROUND 50-80mmOF RAIN IN SOME POCKETS AND IN CHTG, AREAS AROUND JAGDALPUR WILL GET UPTO 90mm OF RAIN.
03/07/2012:-MORNING:-FEW RAINS IN E VID* AND SOME PARTS OF CHTG.
03/07/2012:-EVENING:- SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS EVENING WITH REDUCED INTENSITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.
04/07/2012:-MORNING:-NO RAINS AT NAGPUR AND LIGHT RAINS IN CHTG TO CONTINUE.
04/07/2012:-EVENING:- AGAIN,SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS EVENING WITH STILL MORE REDUCED INTENSITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.
05/07/2012:-MORNING:-SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS MORNING.
05/07/2012:-EVENING:-NO RAINS AT NAGPUR BUT AREAS IN CHTG WILL CONTINUE TO GET RAINS.
06/07/2012:-MORNING:-UPTO 10-20mm OF RAIN AT NAGPUR.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN CHTG AND SOME PARTS OF VID BUT RAINS BEYOND AKOLA AND INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA WILL RECEDE IN THE MORNING.
06/07/2012:-EVENING:-ENTIRE VID AND CHTG WILL GET GOOD TO VERY GOOD RAINS (UPTO 30mms EACH IN VID) FOR THE NEXT 24 hrs. CHTG WILL GET HEAVY TO VERY RAINS (50-80m) IN THE EVENING OF 07th JUL. 2012.
FARMERS IN VID CAN START SOWING THEIR SEEDS FROM FIRST WEEK-END OF JULY 2012.
(AROUND 10% DEVIATION IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND 20% IN TIMING IS ASSUMED,*=NAGPUR).
Milind Phadke
+919890317557
milind1966@gmail.com
