ANOTHER SPELL OF REDUCED RAIN IN NAGPUR REGION

AFTER RAINING HEAVILY FOR ALMOST TWO DAYS NOW, THE RAINS WILL REDUCE IN THE NEXT WEEK AND THE MAX TEMP WILL RISE BY ABOUT 7-8 Deg CEL WITH HUMIDITY (RELATIVE) AROUND 60-70%.

 

THE 187.4 mm RAINFALL RECORDED AT NAGPUR IN LAST 24 hrs IS ALMOST EQUIVALENT TO MONTHLY TOTAL R/F FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE, THOUGH NOT HIGHEST IN 24 hrs.

SINCE THE LOW PR AREA IS SHIFTING NW wards, THERE WILL BE REDUCED R/F ACTIVITY FROM 27th A/F TILL NEXT TUESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL FEW DROPS OF RAIN (REMEMBER this is monsoon season) till 30TH JUNE.

THIS WILL LEAVE SOME TIME FOR THE FARMERS TO SOW THE SEEDS IN THEIR FIELDS, FOR WHICH IT IS THE RIPE TIME NOW.

THE ADVANCEMENT OF MONSOON COVERING ENTIRE INDIA IN ABOUT 20 DAYS, IS UNUSUAL THOUGH IN THIS DECADE, IS ALSO A PHENOMENA FOR RE SEARCHING, WHERE A SHIFTING (delaying Onset) OF MONSOON; AND SO THE SOWING SEASONS; WAS NOTICEABLE.

I REMEMBER IN PAIN ALL THOSE WHO LEFT FOR HEAVENLY ABODE IN THE MAYHEM IN UTTARKHAND. INTERESTINGLY GOOGLE'S CONTRIBUTION (in the following link) IS PRAISE WORTHY. :-  http://www.google.org/crisisresponse/uttarakhand-flood-2013.html

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

RECEDING RAIN IN VIDARBHA IN THE SECOND WEEK OF MONSOON 2013

THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE QUANTITY OF RAINFALL WILL REDUCE IN THE NEXT WEEK OVER VID AS A WHOLE.

QUANTITATIVELY THE RAINS WILL MAKE FEEL THEIR PRESENCE ON & OFF, REMINDING US THAT WE ARE ENTERING INTO THE SECOND/THIRD WEEK OF MONSOON.

HOWEVER THE NAGPUR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY AND WE WILL GET SOME RESPITE FROM VERY GOOD FIRST SPELL OF RAINS AT NAGPUR.

THE FIGUREWISE ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AS FOLLOWS:-(for NAGPUR):-

16/06/2013                                          4.0mm

17/06/2013                                          4.0mm

18&19/06/2013                No(significant)rain

20/06/2013                                          0.5mm

21/06/2013(A/N)                                 3.0mm

22/06/2013                                          0.4mm

THE MAX TEMPS WILL SEE A RISE OF ABOUT 10 DEG CEL AND MIN ABOUT 04 DEG CEL (COMPARED TO TODAY’S TEMPS) TOWARDS THE WEEK END.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT VARIATION ELSE WHERE IN THE NAGPUR REGION. Viz KATOL, ARVI etc AREA WILL GET T/S WITH RAINS ON 21^st AND 22^nd WITH APPROX 5-8 mm OF RAINS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE(compared to Nagpur) IN THE AMRAVATI & AKOLA REGION.

THE RAINS IN THE VIDARBHA REGION WILL SEE A RECEDING TREND IN THE NEXT WEEK TILL 22^nd JUNE 2013.

THE FARMERS ARE ADVISED TO WAIT FOR SECOND GOOD SPELL OF RAINS WHICH WILL ENSURE SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE FOR GERMINATIONOF SEEDS FOR A BUMPER HARVEST.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

SOUTH WEST MONSOON IN 2013 AT NAGPUR

THE SOUTH WEST MONSOON IS ACTIVE IN NAGPUR AND AROUND.

THE ENTIRE VIDARBHA REGION HAS RECEIVED GOOD RAINFALL IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MONSOON IN 2013.

THE SW MONSOON ENTERED IN VID ON 08th JUNE 2013 AND NAGPUR ON 10th JUNE 2013. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIA ALSO AND THE NORTHERLY MARCH OF SWM CONTINUES WITH GOOD SPEED. THE DAILY SPATIAL RAINFALL MAP SHOWS NEAR NORMAL(+IveANAMOLY). THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT NAGPUR, POST AFTERNOON ON 12th JUNE 2013 AND 13th A/N THROUGH THE NIGHT OF 13/14 AND MORNING HOURS OF 14th JUNE 2013 WITH FEW RAINS ON 15th EVENING AS WELL. A PLEASENT WEEKEND ON SUNDAY JUNE THE 16th 2013 IS IN STORE WITH A COOL BREEZE OF AROUND 15Kmph AND CLOUDY SKIES.

THE RAINFALL ACROSS TIME SERIES AS ON DATE IS IN EXCESS OF NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL INDIA REGION. (map source:-IMD)

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

WELCOME TO MONSOON 2013 IN VIDARBHA

THE MONSOON HAS ALREADY ENTERED IN VIDARBHA TODAY AND THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GOING ON WITH FEW TO VERY FEW RAINFALL IN PATCHES FROM ABOUT A WEEK IN AND AROUND NAGPUR.

DUE TO UPPER AIR CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THERE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AT NAGPUR ON 11th JUNE 2013 AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RF ACTIVITY ON 12th JUNE'13 WITH FEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WELL.

SOME PARTS OF VIDARWELCOME MONSOBHA, PARTICULARLY EAST VID WILL GET HEAVY TO VERY RAINFALL ON 11th JUNE '13.

THE MAX TEMP WILL DROP BY 08-10 DEG CEL (AS COMPARED TO TODAY'S TEMP) WITH STRONG GROUND WINDS AROUND 20Kmph. THE RAINS WILL CEASE AT NAGPUR (WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO DROPS---TRACE{UNMEASUREABLE}) FROM 13th JUNE '13 AND CLOUDY WX WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THE WEEK.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

ONSET OF MONSOON IN 2013

MOST OF THE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR EARLY ONSET OF MONSOON IN VID AND PARTICULARLY AT NAGPUR.

THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE RAINFALL ANOMALY CHART SHOWS ABOUT +4 TO +6 (mm/day) FOR THE WEEK 10^th JUNE TO 16^th JUNE 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL INDIA WHICH COVERS MOST PART OF THE VID. EVER SINCE THE ONSET OVER A& N ISLANDS AND KERALA THE MONSOON CURRENT IS MAINTAINING GOOD SPEED OF ADVANCEMENT, PARTICULARLY THE ARABIAN SEA BRANCH.

THE IOD AND ENSO ARE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOT ONLY FOR ONSET OF MONSOON BUT ALSO FOR IT’S SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION.

THE NCEP-CFS (Climate Forecast system or Coupled Forecast system v2) INDICATES A LITTLE LESS THAN NORMAL (VALUE WISE) RAIN FALL TILL AUGUST 2013 AND THEN NORMAL RAINFALL (NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN VALUES) TILL OCTOBER 2013.

HOWEVER FOR NAGPUR, 10^th TO 12^th JUNE 2013 WE WILL SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH FEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON 10^th.

IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE ONSET OF MONSOON OVER NAGPUR, IT CAN BE DONE ON 12^th/13^th JUNE AND MOST PARTS OF VID WILL GET WIDESPREAD RAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

http://milindphadke.blogspot.com