ONSET OF MONSOON IN 2013

MOST OF THE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR EARLY ONSET OF MONSOON IN VID AND PARTICULARLY AT NAGPUR.

THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE RAINFALL ANOMALY CHART SHOWS ABOUT +4 TO +6 (mm/day) FOR THE WEEK 10^th JUNE TO 16^th JUNE 2013

FOR THE CENTRAL INDIA WHICH COVERS MOST PART OF THE VID. EVER SINCE THE ONSET OVER A& N ISLANDS AND KERALA THE MONSOON CURRENT IS MAINTAINING GOOD SPEED OF ADVANCEMENT, PARTICULARLY THE ARABIAN SEA BRANCH.

THE IOD AND ENSO ARE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOT ONLY FOR ONSET OF MONSOON BUT ALSO FOR IT’S SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION.

THE NCEP-CFS (Climate Forecast system or Coupled Forecast system v2) INDICATES A LITTLE LESS THAN NORMAL (VALUE WISE) RAIN FALL TILL AUGUST 2013 AND THEN NORMAL RAINFALL (NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN VALUES) TILL OCTOBER 2013.

HOWEVER FOR NAGPUR, 10^th TO 12^th JUNE 2013 WE WILL SEE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH FEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON 10^th.

IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE ONSET OF MONSOON OVER NAGPUR, IT CAN BE DONE ON 12^th/13^th JUNE AND MOST PARTS OF VID WILL GET WIDESPREAD RAINS DURING THIS PERIOD.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

http://milindphadke.blogspot.com