THE SKY IS FALLING

THE WEATHER OVER NAGPUR SKIES AND ENTIRE CENTRAL INDIA (ALMOST), BEING STABLE, WITH MINIMAL DISTURBANCE (RISING HEAT), WHICH IS USUAL DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, THERE IS NOTHING MUCH OF A FEEDBACK TO SHARE.

BUT, I WISH TO SHARE ONE ARTICLE WHICH I READ FEW DAYS AGO, AND HOPE THAT SCIENCE BUFFS MAY HAVE GONE THROUGH EARLIER.

Nacreous Clouds-Mother Of Pearl 

THE NASA SATELLITE DATA STUDIED BY UNIVERSITY OF AUCKLAND FOR THE PAST TEN YEARS RESULTED IN STARTLING REVELATIONS THAT CLOUD TOPS ARE LOWERING IN HEIGHTS.

THE LESS FORMATION OF CLOUDS AT HIGHER ALTITUDE (VERTICAL) AND THE GLOBAL AVERAGE ALTITUDE OF CLOUD HAS DROPPED BY ABOUT 40 Mtrs.(SAY ABOUT 130 FEET OR 1%).

Noctilucent Clouds

THIS MAY BE A RESULT OF CHANGING ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE IMPACTING CLOUD FORMATION.

BUT ‘THE LOWER IN ATMOSPHERE’ CLOUD FORMATION WOULD RESULT IN THE ‘EARTH TO COOL’ MORE AND THUS POTENTIALLY OFFSETTING THE THREAT OF ‘GLOBAL WARMING’, CAUSED BY GREENHOUSE GASES.

THE TEN YEAR DATA MAY BE INSUFFICIENT TO DRAW FINAL CONCLUSION OF ‘LOWER CLOUD HEIGHT’.

THE CLOUDS ARE, EPHEMERAL, AND DIFFICULT IN REAL TIME TO TRACK, THEIR HEIGHT AND THEIR LOCATION  MAY VARY DUE TO LOCAL OROGRAPHY, BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANGE IN CIRCULATION PATTERN THAT GIVE RISE TO CLOUD FORMATION AT HIGH ALTITUDE.

NacreousCloud

Mr DAVIES AND HIS COLLEAGUES HAVE ANALYSED THE DATA RECEIVED FROM ‘MULTI-ANGLE IMAGING SPECTRORADIOMETER’ ON NASA’S TERRA SPACECRAFT FOR A PERIOD FROM MARCH 2000 TO FEBRUARY 2010 AND IF THE FUTURE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOW THAT THE CLOUDS ARE ACTUALLY GETTING LOWER, THEN AN IMPORTANT EFFECT ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE (SLOW OR EXCERBATE THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING) IS NOT RULED OUT. {EXTRACTS FROM WRITE-UP OF Mr STEPHANIE PAPPAS}.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE POLITICALLY ACTIVE AND VOLATILE WEEK

THE NAGPUR MUNICIPALITY WILL SEE A NEW MAYOR IN THIS WEEK, AS THE POLLING IS OVER YESTERDAY, AND THE COUNTING OF VOTES BEGINS, FINALLY, TEMPERATURE WISE, WE WILL BE IN THE COMFORT ZONE AT NAGPUR.

THE WEEK FROM 17^th WILL SEE A DROP IN RH AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE VIRTUALLY CONSTANT IN THE RANGE OF 20°C (+/-0.5) AND THE MAXIMUM TEMP IS SET TO RISE (ALONG WITH THE POLITICAL ACTIVITY) DAILY BY APPROX 0.5°C ON AN AVERAGE AND THE DAY AT THE WEEK END WILL SEE AT LEAST FOUR DEGREES RISE IN THE MAX TEMPS AND MAY CROSS 35°C.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MUCH STABLE, AS OF NOW, THROUGHT THE WEEK.

THE NWlies WILL SET TO Wlies TILL THE MID-TROP LEVELS AND GROUND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE FROM 15-20Kmph TO 2-5Kmph.

SIMILAR WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIA(MINUS POLITICS) TILL RAIPUR-BILASPUR IN THE CHHATTISGRAH IS EXPECTED, EXCEPT A BIT OF ACTIVITY, TODAY IN THE NE CHTG.

Milind Phadke,

+919890317557,

http://milindphadke.blogspot.com/

NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE WEEK OF "VALENTINE'S-DAY"

THE NAGPUR SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY.

THE WEEK TILL 18^th FEB 2012 WILL BE WARM AND THE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE BY ABOUT FIVE TO SIX DEGREE CEL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO SHOW THE SAME TREND OF RISING THROUGHT THE WEEK. THE UPPER WINDS TILL  1.5Kms AGL SHOW A CHANGING TREND AND WILL BECOME Sly TO SWly, THUS BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE OVER THE NAGPUR SKIES FROM 12^th.

THE LIFTED INDEX BEING –IVE AND THE CAPE SUGGESTS A THUNDERY DEVELOPMENT IN THE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING OF 12^th/13^th FEB 2012 AND FEW DROPS OF RAIN (TOTAL  PRECIPITABLE WATER NOT EXCEEDING 5mm) WILL BE THERE, AND PAVING ITS WAY FOR A PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LOVE BIRDS ON THE VALENTINE DAY, FEB THE 14^th.

THE WINDS ABOVE 1.5 Kms AGL CONTINE TO BE Wly. GROUND WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 Kmph FROM 13^th TO 15^th AND THEREFORE, THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL GIVE US A FEELING OF LOWER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER FOR THE "REPUBLIC DAY" WEEK--MIDWEEK UPDATE

THE REPUBLIC DAY CELEBRATIONS IN NE-MP,CHTG AND VID ARE LIKELY TO BE GREETED BY A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

THE NAGPUR SKIES CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY, BUT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AT DIFFERENT TIME (of observations) AND DIFF. DATES ARE GIVING CONFUSING AND RATHER CONFLICTING OUTPUTS COMPELLING ME TO A MID-WEEK UPDATE.

THE LIFTED INDEX (a common measure of determining atmospheric instability at lower levels) IS ALTERNATING FROM NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE (SHOWALTER INDEX also –ive) AND THE CAPE ON +IVE SIDE INDICATES INSTABILITY.

A FEW DROPS OF RAIN TODAY MIDNIGHT AND/OR EARLY MORNING ON 26th JAN 2012 WILL OCCUR AT NAGPUR.

SKY TO REMAIN CLOUDY TILL 28th JAN AND PARTLY CLOUDY FROM 29th JAN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON 29th IS REDUCED TO A MERE 05% ONLY.

A SHARP DROP OF ABOUT 4 DEG CEL (-0.5/+0.5) IN MIN TEMP WILL OCCUR ON 29th JAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 16(-0.5/+1.5) DEG CEL.

THESE KIND OF BOUNCY TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY SEEN IN THE TRANSITION MONTH OF MARCH BUT DUE TO W/D GETTING IN TO LOWER LEVELS AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL-EASTERN PARTS OF INDIA (around chtg and vidarbha) A LARGE VARIATION IS SEEN.

I EXPRESS MY SINCERE THANKS TO Shri MAKARAND MANDE FROM IMD PUNE TO HAVE POINTED OUT THE ERROR OF REPORTING “REPUBLIC DAY” AS “INDEPENDENCE DAY” (in my earlier post) AND ALO APPRECIATE HIS GUIDANCE AND ENCOURAGEMENT WHICH I HAVE BEEN RECEIVING FROM TIME TO TIME.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE "REPUBLIC DAY" WEEK

THE WEEK FROM 23^rd JAN 2011 WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY WITH 40% CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUN THE 29^TH.

HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NOT MORE THAN 2mm. THE MIN TEMPS WILL RISE BY ABOUT 3 DEG CEL ON 24^th AND 25^th JAN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY’S MIN RECORDED AND 27^th AND 28^th WILL SEE A FALL OF ABOUT 1.5(-1/+0.5) DEG CEL IN THE MIN TEMPS.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SEE A SWly FLOW OF WINDS WHICH EXTEND UPTO 3.1 Kms BEYOND WHICH THERE WILL BE Wly WINDS.

24^th TO 28^th JAN WILL BE WARM WITH A RISE OF ABOUT 1(-0.5/+0.5) DEG CEL EACH DAY IN THE MAX TEMPS.

THE GROUND WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 12-18Kmph THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

THE SECTOR BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST OF NAGPUR (Jabalpur to Raipur) WILL SEE A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITABLE AREA IN THE ENSUING WEEK.

WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY AND WARM REPUBLIC DAY.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557