NAGPUR WEATHER FOR THE "REPUBLIC DAY" WEEK--MIDWEEK UPDATE

THE REPUBLIC DAY CELEBRATIONS IN NE-MP,CHTG AND VID ARE LIKELY TO BE GREETED BY A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

THE NAGPUR SKIES CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY, BUT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AT DIFFERENT TIME (of observations) AND DIFF. DATES ARE GIVING CONFUSING AND RATHER CONFLICTING OUTPUTS COMPELLING ME TO A MID-WEEK UPDATE.

THE LIFTED INDEX (a common measure of determining atmospheric instability at lower levels) IS ALTERNATING FROM NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE (SHOWALTER INDEX also –ive) AND THE CAPE ON +IVE SIDE INDICATES INSTABILITY.

A FEW DROPS OF RAIN TODAY MIDNIGHT AND/OR EARLY MORNING ON 26th JAN 2012 WILL OCCUR AT NAGPUR.

SKY TO REMAIN CLOUDY TILL 28th JAN AND PARTLY CLOUDY FROM 29th JAN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON 29th IS REDUCED TO A MERE 05% ONLY.

A SHARP DROP OF ABOUT 4 DEG CEL (-0.5/+0.5) IN MIN TEMP WILL OCCUR ON 29th JAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 16(-0.5/+1.5) DEG CEL.

THESE KIND OF BOUNCY TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY SEEN IN THE TRANSITION MONTH OF MARCH BUT DUE TO W/D GETTING IN TO LOWER LEVELS AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL-EASTERN PARTS OF INDIA (around chtg and vidarbha) A LARGE VARIATION IS SEEN.

I EXPRESS MY SINCERE THANKS TO Shri MAKARAND MANDE FROM IMD PUNE TO HAVE POINTED OUT THE ERROR OF REPORTING “REPUBLIC DAY” AS “INDEPENDENCE DAY” (in my earlier post) AND ALO APPRECIATE HIS GUIDANCE AND ENCOURAGEMENT WHICH I HAVE BEEN RECEIVING FROM TIME TO TIME.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE "REPUBLIC DAY" WEEK

THE WEEK FROM 23^rd JAN 2011 WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY WITH 40% CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUN THE 29^TH.

HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NOT MORE THAN 2mm. THE MIN TEMPS WILL RISE BY ABOUT 3 DEG CEL ON 24^th AND 25^th JAN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY’S MIN RECORDED AND 27^th AND 28^th WILL SEE A FALL OF ABOUT 1.5(-1/+0.5) DEG CEL IN THE MIN TEMPS.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SEE A SWly FLOW OF WINDS WHICH EXTEND UPTO 3.1 Kms BEYOND WHICH THERE WILL BE Wly WINDS.

24^th TO 28^th JAN WILL BE WARM WITH A RISE OF ABOUT 1(-0.5/+0.5) DEG CEL EACH DAY IN THE MAX TEMPS.

THE GROUND WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 12-18Kmph THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

THE SECTOR BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST OF NAGPUR (Jabalpur to Raipur) WILL SEE A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITABLE AREA IN THE ENSUING WEEK.

WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY AND WARM REPUBLIC DAY.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER post SANKRANT FESTIVAL

THE LAST WEEK AS PREDICTED WAS COOL ENOUGH, AND IN FACT, THE MERCURY DIPPED TO 6.6°C YESTERDAY, BEATING ALL FORECASTING MODELS.

THE NEXT WEEK (FROM 16^TH TILL 22^ND) WILL SEE A RISE IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TILL WED 18^TH JAN 2012.

THE 19^TH  & 20^TH JAN WILL SEE A DROP OF ABOUT 1.5°C IN MIN TEMPS, ON 21^ST JAN, A MEAGRE RISE AND ON 22^ND JAN SHARP RISE IN MIN TEMP OF ABOUT 6°C FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY’S TEMPS.

THE SUN 22^ND JAN 2012 WLL BE CLOUDY DUE TO LOWER LEVELS SWly TO Sly WINDS.

THE 1.5 Kms AGL WINDS WILL BE Wly, THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

ONLY 5-10% PROBABILITY OF RAIN ON MON THE 23^RD WITH SOME THUNDERY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NOTICED.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER DURING THE SANKRANTI FESTIVAL

THE NAGPUR TEMPERATURE (MIN) IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8(-1/+2) DEG CEL AND THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL CONTINUE DUE TO GROUND WIND SPEED IN THE RANGE OF 12-15 Kmph, THUS GIVING A FEEL OF STILL LOWER TEMPS.

THE WINDS UPTO 600 mb ARE PRESENTLY Nly WHICH WILL BE NWly FROM 13^th AND Wly FROM 16^th . FEW CLOUDS ON 15^th WILL RAISE THE MAX AND MIN TEMPS AND TILL 17^th (WITHIN TWO DAYS) THE TEMPS (BOTH MAX AND MIN) WILL RAISE BY ABOUT FOUR DEG CEL GIVING A RESPITE FROM THE PRESENT DISCOMFORT DUE TO COLD.

THE ZERO DEG ISOTHERM WILL ALSO RISE FROM THE PRESENT LEVEL OF ABOUT 660 mb TO ABOUT 550 mb.

 THE RH AT THE GROUND WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 30% TO 65% AND FROM 16^th ONWARDS IN THE RANGE OF 40-75%.

THE KITE FLIERS ON THE SANKRANT-DAY MAY BE DISAPPOINTED DUE TO LOWER GROUND WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 02-06 Kmph ONLY BUT AGAIN ON 16^th AND 17^th WILL BE AROUND 10Kmph.

I WISH A VERY HAPPY SANKRANTI FESTIVAL TO ALL.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER OUTLOOK for the WEEK from 04th JAN 2012

THE NAGPUR WEATHER WILL BE MORE OR LESS STABLE IN THE COMMING WEEK FROM 04th JAN 2012 WITH A DECRESING TREND IN THE MINIMUM TEMP. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR PRESENCE OVER THE NAGPUR SKIES AND THE LIFTED INDEX AND TOTAL TOTALS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AND THE RH RAISING TO ABOUT 90% THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO DROPS HERE AND THERE ON 04th JAN (EVE) CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE ZERO DEG ISOTHERM FALLS BY ABOUT 50mb ACROSS THE WEEK SUGGESTS A STEEP FALL OF ABOUT 2.5 DEG CEL ON 08th JAN 2012 AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL BE 15 (+1/-1.5) deg cel. THE MAX TEMP WILL ALSO REGISTER A FALL OF ABOUT 05(-2.0/+2.0)DEG CEL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 29 DEG CEL TO 24 DEG CEL. THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE A FEEL OF WINTER BEING PRESENT AND GRADUAL RISE OF GROUND WIND FROM 02Kmph TO 16 Kmph ACROSS THE WEEK WILL MAKE THE WINTER ‘PINK’.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557
http://milindphadke.blogspot.com/