NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE WEEK OF "VALENTINE'S-DAY"

THE NAGPUR SKIES CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY.

THE WEEK TILL 18^th FEB 2012 WILL BE WARM AND THE MAX TEMPS WILL RISE BY ABOUT FIVE TO SIX DEGREE CEL TILL THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO SHOW THE SAME TREND OF RISING THROUGHT THE WEEK. THE UPPER WINDS TILL  1.5Kms AGL SHOW A CHANGING TREND AND WILL BECOME Sly TO SWly, THUS BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE OVER THE NAGPUR SKIES FROM 12^th.

THE LIFTED INDEX BEING –IVE AND THE CAPE SUGGESTS A THUNDERY DEVELOPMENT IN THE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING OF 12^th/13^th FEB 2012 AND FEW DROPS OF RAIN (TOTAL  PRECIPITABLE WATER NOT EXCEEDING 5mm) WILL BE THERE, AND PAVING ITS WAY FOR A PLEASANT WEATHER FOR LOVE BIRDS ON THE VALENTINE DAY, FEB THE 14^th.

THE WINDS ABOVE 1.5 Kms AGL CONTINE TO BE Wly. GROUND WINDS WILL EXCEED 20 Kmph FROM 13^th TO 15^th AND THEREFORE, THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL GIVE US A FEELING OF LOWER THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER FOR THE "REPUBLIC DAY" WEEK--MIDWEEK UPDATE

THE REPUBLIC DAY CELEBRATIONS IN NE-MP,CHTG AND VID ARE LIKELY TO BE GREETED BY A FEW DROPS OF RAIN.

THE NAGPUR SKIES CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY, BUT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS AT DIFFERENT TIME (of observations) AND DIFF. DATES ARE GIVING CONFUSING AND RATHER CONFLICTING OUTPUTS COMPELLING ME TO A MID-WEEK UPDATE.

THE LIFTED INDEX (a common measure of determining atmospheric instability at lower levels) IS ALTERNATING FROM NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE (SHOWALTER INDEX also –ive) AND THE CAPE ON +IVE SIDE INDICATES INSTABILITY.

A FEW DROPS OF RAIN TODAY MIDNIGHT AND/OR EARLY MORNING ON 26th JAN 2012 WILL OCCUR AT NAGPUR.

SKY TO REMAIN CLOUDY TILL 28th JAN AND PARTLY CLOUDY FROM 29th JAN.

THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON 29th IS REDUCED TO A MERE 05% ONLY.

A SHARP DROP OF ABOUT 4 DEG CEL (-0.5/+0.5) IN MIN TEMP WILL OCCUR ON 29th JAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND 16(-0.5/+1.5) DEG CEL.

THESE KIND OF BOUNCY TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY SEEN IN THE TRANSITION MONTH OF MARCH BUT DUE TO W/D GETTING IN TO LOWER LEVELS AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE CENTRAL-EASTERN PARTS OF INDIA (around chtg and vidarbha) A LARGE VARIATION IS SEEN.

I EXPRESS MY SINCERE THANKS TO Shri MAKARAND MANDE FROM IMD PUNE TO HAVE POINTED OUT THE ERROR OF REPORTING “REPUBLIC DAY” AS “INDEPENDENCE DAY” (in my earlier post) AND ALO APPRECIATE HIS GUIDANCE AND ENCOURAGEMENT WHICH I HAVE BEEN RECEIVING FROM TIME TO TIME.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE "REPUBLIC DAY" WEEK

THE WEEK FROM 23^rd JAN 2011 WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY WITH 40% CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUN THE 29^TH.

HOWEVER THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NOT MORE THAN 2mm. THE MIN TEMPS WILL RISE BY ABOUT 3 DEG CEL ON 24^th AND 25^th JAN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY’S MIN RECORDED AND 27^th AND 28^th WILL SEE A FALL OF ABOUT 1.5(-1/+0.5) DEG CEL IN THE MIN TEMPS.

THE LOWER LEVELS WILL SEE A SWly FLOW OF WINDS WHICH EXTEND UPTO 3.1 Kms BEYOND WHICH THERE WILL BE Wly WINDS.

24^th TO 28^th JAN WILL BE WARM WITH A RISE OF ABOUT 1(-0.5/+0.5) DEG CEL EACH DAY IN THE MAX TEMPS.

THE GROUND WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 12-18Kmph THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

THE SECTOR BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST OF NAGPUR (Jabalpur to Raipur) WILL SEE A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITABLE AREA IN THE ENSUING WEEK.

WISH YOU ALL A HAPPY AND WARM REPUBLIC DAY.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER post SANKRANT FESTIVAL

THE LAST WEEK AS PREDICTED WAS COOL ENOUGH, AND IN FACT, THE MERCURY DIPPED TO 6.6°C YESTERDAY, BEATING ALL FORECASTING MODELS.

THE NEXT WEEK (FROM 16^TH TILL 22^ND) WILL SEE A RISE IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TILL WED 18^TH JAN 2012.

THE 19^TH  & 20^TH JAN WILL SEE A DROP OF ABOUT 1.5°C IN MIN TEMPS, ON 21^ST JAN, A MEAGRE RISE AND ON 22^ND JAN SHARP RISE IN MIN TEMP OF ABOUT 6°C FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY’S TEMPS.

THE SUN 22^ND JAN 2012 WLL BE CLOUDY DUE TO LOWER LEVELS SWly TO Sly WINDS.

THE 1.5 Kms AGL WINDS WILL BE Wly, THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

ONLY 5-10% PROBABILITY OF RAIN ON MON THE 23^RD WITH SOME THUNDERY DEVELOPMENT MAY BE NOTICED.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER DURING THE SANKRANTI FESTIVAL

THE NAGPUR TEMPERATURE (MIN) IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8(-1/+2) DEG CEL AND THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL CONTINUE DUE TO GROUND WIND SPEED IN THE RANGE OF 12-15 Kmph, THUS GIVING A FEEL OF STILL LOWER TEMPS.

THE WINDS UPTO 600 mb ARE PRESENTLY Nly WHICH WILL BE NWly FROM 13^th AND Wly FROM 16^th . FEW CLOUDS ON 15^th WILL RAISE THE MAX AND MIN TEMPS AND TILL 17^th (WITHIN TWO DAYS) THE TEMPS (BOTH MAX AND MIN) WILL RAISE BY ABOUT FOUR DEG CEL GIVING A RESPITE FROM THE PRESENT DISCOMFORT DUE TO COLD.

THE ZERO DEG ISOTHERM WILL ALSO RISE FROM THE PRESENT LEVEL OF ABOUT 660 mb TO ABOUT 550 mb.

 THE RH AT THE GROUND WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF ABOUT 30% TO 65% AND FROM 16^th ONWARDS IN THE RANGE OF 40-75%.

THE KITE FLIERS ON THE SANKRANT-DAY MAY BE DISAPPOINTED DUE TO LOWER GROUND WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 02-06 Kmph ONLY BUT AGAIN ON 16^th AND 17^th WILL BE AROUND 10Kmph.

I WISH A VERY HAPPY SANKRANTI FESTIVAL TO ALL.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER OUTLOOK for the WEEK from 04th JAN 2012

THE NAGPUR WEATHER WILL BE MORE OR LESS STABLE IN THE COMMING WEEK FROM 04th JAN 2012 WITH A DECRESING TREND IN THE MINIMUM TEMP. ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR PRESENCE OVER THE NAGPUR SKIES AND THE LIFTED INDEX AND TOTAL TOTALS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY AND THE RH RAISING TO ABOUT 90% THE POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR TWO DROPS HERE AND THERE ON 04th JAN (EVE) CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE ZERO DEG ISOTHERM FALLS BY ABOUT 50mb ACROSS THE WEEK SUGGESTS A STEEP FALL OF ABOUT 2.5 DEG CEL ON 08th JAN 2012 AND THE MIN TEMPS WILL BE 15 (+1/-1.5) deg cel. THE MAX TEMP WILL ALSO REGISTER A FALL OF ABOUT 05(-2.0/+2.0)DEG CEL THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 29 DEG CEL TO 24 DEG CEL. THE WIND CHILL FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE A FEEL OF WINTER BEING PRESENT AND GRADUAL RISE OF GROUND WIND FROM 02Kmph TO 16 Kmph ACROSS THE WEEK WILL MAKE THE WINTER ‘PINK’.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557
http://milindphadke.blogspot.com/

NAGPUR WEATHER in the 2011 YEAR END

THE YEAR END IS LIKELY TO BE GREETED BY THE DIVINE WATERS FROM THE HEAVENS AS FEW DROPS OF RAIN WILL MAKE THEIR PRESENCE HERE AND THERE (ONE OR TWO PLACES) AT NAGPUR (50Km dia.) AND WISH A WARM ‘GOOD-BYE’ TO THE YEAR 2011. THE MINIMUM TEMPS WILL RISE BY ABOUT FOUR DEGREES FROM THE PRESENT LEVELS OF ABOUT 11°C TO 15(-1/+2) °C.

THE WARMTH WILL BE FELT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE MAINLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

THE Sly TO SWly WINDS UPTO 700mb WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO DRENCH THE NAGPURians THROUGHT THE NIGHT OF31st DEC 2011 AND INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TILL EARLY MORNING AND MORNING HOURS IN THE NEW YEAR i.e ON 01st JAN 2012.

THE CYCLONIC STORM 92b NOW NAMED AS ‘THANE’ IN THE Bay of Bengal WITH INITIAL Nly MOVEMENT IS NOW MOVING NWly AND WILL BRING GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SOUTH INDIA. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE THE MOISTURE OVER THE NAGPUR SKIES WILL MAKE A THUNDERY DEPARTURE ON 02nd JAN 2012 AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FROM 03rd JAN 2012.

THE WIND-CHILL FACTOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGHT THE WEEK, EXCEPT ON 01st JAN THE GROUND WIND WOULD BE 10-12Kmph AND WILL GIVE LESS FEEL OF CHILL.

THE UPDATE ON THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘THANE’ WILL BE PROVIDED IN A DAY OR TWO, AS IT IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE COAST WITHIN NEXT 24-36hrs, NOW ALMOST STATIONARY WITH WNWly TO NWly MOVEMENT.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557
http://milindphadke.blogspot.com/

NAGPUR WEATHER IN THE YEAR END OF 2011

DUE TO SWLY WINDS IN THE MIND TROPOSHERIC LEVELS, SOME MOISTURE HAS CREPT OVER THE NAGPUR SKIES AND THE MINIMUM TEMPS HAS ALREADY STARTED TO RISE DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES. BY THE YEAR END THE MIN TEMPS WILL RISE TO ABOUT FOUR DEGREE CELCIUS FROM A CURRENT LEVELS OF 10 DEG (-1/+1) TO ABOUT 14 DEG (-1/+2). 20% POSSIBILITY OF RAIN ON 30th NIGHT/31st MNG AND SOME THUNDERY ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE PRESENT. THE SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY THROUGHT THE WEEK AHEAD. THE ZERO DEG ISOTHERM FROM CURRENT LEVEL OF 580 mb (+/-10) WILL ALSO MOVE UPWARDS TO ABOUT 550mb AND THE UPPER WINDS WILL BE SWly FROM 28th DEC 2011 ONWARDS AND LOWER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEly TO Ely. HOWEVER THE GROUND WINDS (2mt) WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE CHILL FACTOR, SINCE THE SPEED WOULD BE 15 Kmph TO 18 Kmph. THUS, A 14 Deg CEL AT 10 Kts (19 Kmph) WOULD GIVE A FEEL OF ABOUT 09 Deg CEL.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER

NAGPUR IS LIKELY TO WARM UP IN THE NEXT WEEK AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO RISE AT LEAST 2.5 TO 3.5 DEGREES FROM TODAY AND MAY SETTLE AROUND 19(+/-1.5) DEG CEL BY THE MONTH END.

SLIGHT TO VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF TRACE (UNMEASURABLE--or boondabaandi--or one or two drops here and there in a widely scatterd area) RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM 29th EVENING/NIGHT ONWARDS.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FROM TODAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ONWARDS AND TRACES OF CLOUD CAN BE SEEN WHICH WILL INTENSIFY TO MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY(26th NOV) ONWARDS.



MORNINGS WILL BE BREEZY WITH 12-15Kmph WINDS AND WILL STILL CONTINUE TO GIVE A FEEL OF CHIL, BUT DUE TO RISE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS FROM MONDAY(28th NOV) THE INCREASE IN DISCOMFORT MAY BE NOTICED.



THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS, WHICH ARE PRESENTLY EASTERLIES WILL BE TURNING TO SOUTH-EASTERLIES AND 1.5 Kms AGL THE PRESENT N-Elies WILL BE SOUTHERly TO SSWly WHICH WILL BRING IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM or THUNDERSTORM with RAIN LIKE ACTIVITY.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557

Crepuscular Ray

What is crepuscular ray?

The light scattered by airborne dust, water droplets, air molecules or aerosols which provide a visible contrast between shadowed and illuminated parts of the sky is called a crepuscular ray.

This may happen either during sunrise or sunset, although not necessarily at these times.

The crepuscular rays appear to radiate outwards from the source of light due to the effects of distance and perspective, but they are actually parallel.

As observed from the earth or ground, the shadowed areas around the rays are formed by mountain tops or clouds which block the path of sun/moon light.

The artists have imagined this in the form of light being showered from the heaven by the God/s. But if we happen to see them from above the earth, say from the space, the viewing perspective gives a clear illustration of the crepuscular ray being parallel to each other.

One such phenomenon was observed over the Indian Subcontinent on 18th Oct 2011from the space station by the expedition29 crew of the International Space Station Program. A Nikon D2Xs digital camera using a 110mm lens and 4288x2848 pixel, CMOS sensor captured the phenomena, when the Sun was setting to the West (left side of the photograph) and a cumulonimbus cloud obstructed/shadowed the Sun rays which penetrated through a layer of haze beneath the CB cloud.

The following details may be noted:-

Mission:- ISS029

Date of Observation :- 18/10/2011

Time of Observation :- 113253 GMT

Nadir Point:- Latitude :- 24.0, Longitude 80.8 (Negative Numbers indicate south for latitude an west for longitude).

Nadir to Photo Centre Direction :- Sun Azimuth:- 256 (Clockwise angle in degrees from north to the sun, measured at nadir point) Spacecraft Altitude:- 374 Kms

Sun Elevation Angle:- 7 (angle in degrees between the horizon and the sun measured at the nadir point)

Orbit Number:- 2016.

(Nadir is a point on the celestial sphere directly below the observer diametrically opposite to the Zenith. Strictly it is nadir at a given point is the local vertical direction pointing towards the direction of the gravitational force at that location.

These types of photographs have a great value to the scientists and public and are available on the internet and can be viewed at the NASA/JSC Gateway to Astronaut Photography of the Earth.

The image provided here by the ISS Crew Earth Observations experiment and Image Science & Analysis Laboratory, Johnson Space Center has been cropped (by them) to enhance and improve the contrast.

Milind Phadke
+919890317557