Global hazards outlook

The above pic shared is from climate prediction centre courtesy NOAA and allgood and the probability of formation of tropical cyclone till month end (may 2026) is 20% to 40% and no major hazardous weather is predicted for India and around.

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Conditions favourable for onset of Monsoon over Andamans

 Conditions are favourable for advancement of Monsoon-2026 over Andaman and Nicobar islands and further into BoB.

These inputs are from my friend and senior colleague Mr a s khan :--

Good news: Conditions are becoming highly favorable for monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during May 20-30. As per GFS, a nice upper-level anticyclone is likely to form over Central India, pushing the westerly jet stream further north and stabilizing easterlies over most parts of South India. This indicates that the mean tropospheric meridional temperature gradient is likely to reverse rapidly after May 20 and will also allow the angular momentum conserving overturning monsoon circulation to stabilize over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and some parts of South India by the end of the month.  

Video: 150 hPa winds in GFS on May 25 from Windy

Courtesy 👆🏻Shri AS Khan

Monsoon 2026

As analysed earlier the weather patterns behave differently every year.

A low pressure area in BoB around mid-may could trigger early arrival of monsoon over India. 

Various weather models indicate faster advancement of monsoon in 2026 over Andamans and Kerala. 

This could also be recorded as earliest ever onset of monsoon over India. 

The rainfall variability in 2026 may be very wide from drought zones to flood zones. Central India specially Nagpur and around is more likely to be normal with some variability of longer than usual break-monsoon phases, W-vid is very likely to see above normal rainfall in monsoon-2026.

Always refer to IMD.

Insights to Monsoon 2026

Amidst widely circulated news about EL NINO making it's presence felt, probably strongest ever,as reported manytimes elsewhere, the pre-monsoon activities has begun since last 2-3 days in central India and noticeable downfall in maximum temperatures alongwith changes in the patterns of upper wind flow and some cloud coverage shows that peak-summer is almost over. Though year 2026 is predicted to be EL NINO year the Monsoon in Vidarbha region is likely to be normal and parts of West vid like Akola Buldhana may record more than normal or excess rainfall in the season. There is no need to panick for farmers of Vidarbha region. Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

RAINFALL FORECAST TILL 15th JULY 2021 IN AND AROUND NAGPUR REGION

 RAINFALL FORECAST TILL 15th JULY 2021 IN AND AROUND NAGPUR REGION

पर्जन्यमान अंदाज

पुनर्वसू नक्षत्र पर्जन्य योग

6 जुलै  ते 20 जुलै 2021

ह्या वर्षी रोहिणी  व मृग नक्षत्रात पाऊस बेताचा  पण चांगला झाला,  मागे भाकीत केल्या प्रमाणे आद्रा नक्षत्रात पाऊस तुरळक ठिकाणी तो पण तुरळक पडला.

सुर्यानी दि 6 जुलै ला सकाळी 2.34वा पुनर्वसू नक्षत्रात प्रवेश केला. सर्याच्या ह्या नक्षत्रात असताना चंद्र रोहिणी ते अनुराधा ह्या नक्षत्रातून भ्रमण करत आहे.

सध्या मंगळ कर्क राशीत आश्लेषा  नक्षत्रातुन भ्रमण करत आहे,तो 20 ता  सिंह ह्याअग्नी तत्वाच्या राशीत भ्रमण करेल.बुध मृग ते पुनर्वसू, शुक्र आश्लेषा ते मघा नक्षत्रातुन , गुरू - शततारका, शनी- श्रवण, राहू- रोहिणी, व केतू- अनुराधा नक्षत्रातुन भ्रमण करत आहेत

एकंदरीत ह्या ग्रहांच्या  गोचरभ्रमण  स्थिती व गती,  प्रमाणे 

दि 7 जुलै ला पूर्व विदर्भातील चंद्रपूर, गडचिरोली जिल्ह्यातील काही ठिकाणी जोरदार वाऱ्यासह पण तुरळक पाऊस पडेल, 9 ता महाराष्ट्रतील पुष्कळ जिल्ह्यात पर्जन्य वृष्टी होईल. 12 ता. वाऱ्याची दिशा बदलेल व बंगालच्या उपसागरात कमी दाबाचा पट्टा तयार होईल ह्या मुळे  12 ते 16 जुलै दरम्यानच्या  नाशिक, अहमदनगर, मध्य महाराष्ट्र,  मराठवाड्यातील काही जिल्हे, तसेच पश्चिम महाराष्ट्र तील  पुणे,सोलापूर, सातारा, ह्या जिल्हात काही ठिकाणी पाऊस पडेल.

पश्चिम विदर्भातील अमरावती,अकोला, बुलढाणा,ह्या बहुतांश जिह्यात 14 ता नंतरच पाऊस येईल तो पण बेताचाच पडेल.  जोरदार वारा सुटेल, विजा चमकतील पण पाऊस तुरळक ठिकाणी तुरळक पडेल, साधारण 13-14 मिनिट किंवा जास्तीत जास्त 39 मिनिटे  पावसाची एक सर येईल.

पूर्व विदर्भातील चंद्रपूर, गडचिरोली, गोंदिया, भंडारा, वर्धा,नागपूर ह्या जिल्ह्यात पाऊस 14 - 16 जुलै दरम्यान  येईल.

15 जुलै नंतर पाऊस उत्तर भारत कडे आपला प्रवास सुरु करेल.

एकंदरीत संपूर्ण नक्षत्रात पाऊस सरासरी पेक्ष्या कमी आहे. सर्व शेतकरी बांधवांनी त्या प्रमाणे पिकांचे नियोजन करावे

पुढील पर्जन्यमानअंदाज 21जुलै ला.....

डॉ मुकुंद मोहोळकर

Ph.D (वेदांग ज्योतिष्य)

Ph D(Business Managemant)

9823116709

(SHARED HERE WITH DUE PERMISSION)

Nagpur weather outlook till 15th Jan 2017

The atmosphere will be stable with not much change in the weather parameters at Nagpur for the period 1^st fortnight of 2017.

The Max temp will see a gradual rise till 32 deg cel for about a week, then a gradual decline for 2-3 deg from the peak. A direct 2 deg fall is expected on 11^th Jan 2017 and in range (+2/-1) for about two days and then gradual rise till 31 deg cel.

The min temps will be in line too, rising and falling with max correspondingly and will be in the range 15-18 deg cel (climbing till 06^th jan) and six deg fall in next about five days (6-11 jan) and remain the range…..14 (-2/+1) deg cel.

The wind speed will however continue to be light to moderate throughout the fortnight.

Kite flying enthusiasts, may; however; feel dampened spirit; due to light wind from 12-15 jan 2017. The wind gusts will be moderate from 08^th jan ’17 till 12^th jan ’17 and will be 10-12 knots (10-20 kmph).

No chance of precipitation at Nagpur till 15^th jan 2017.
Always refer to authorized sites like IMD for wx forecasts.
(data source imd and various world weather sites)
Milind Phadke
+919890317557

2016 favourite songs

RAINFALL IN NAGPUR AND VIDARBHA DURING THE 2nd WEEK OF JULY

QUANTITATIVELY GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WILL BE THERE IN NAGPUR AND ENTIRE VIDARBHA DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF JULY.

THE UAC OVER ORISSA-JHARKHAND ON 10th JULY WILL BRING IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE IN NAGPUR AND AROUND.

ISOLATED PLACES IN VIDARBHA WILL EXPERIENCE VERY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON 10th AND 11th JULY 2014.

THE RAIN ACTIVITY STARTS INCREASING INTERMITTENTLY FROM 09TH JULY AND WILL BE ACTIVE TILL WEEKEND AND THEREAFTER DECREASE FROM SAT EVENING.

SUBSEQUENT WEEK FROM 13th JULY WILL GIVE ABOUT 70% OF NORMAL(for the week) RAINFALL IN VIDARBHA.

W-VID AND S-VID THE RAINS WILL BE ABOUT 95% OF NORMAL.

THE GROUND WIND AND UPTO 900mb  IS SSWly THE SLP MAY DROP TO 998mb.

FARMERS CAN SAFELY GO FOR SOWING NOW.

THOSE WHO NEED CONSULTANCY ABOUT AGRICULTURE AND NEW TECHNIQUES MAY VISIT :- http://www.avaniindia.com/agri?s=avani.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

LIKELY REVIVAL OF MONSOON OVER VIDARBHA

A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL IN PARTS OF VIDARBHA DOES NOT MEAN REVIVAL OF MONSOON AS SEVERAL CONDITIONS NEEDS TO BE SATISFIED.

HOWEVER WEEK-END RAINS OVER PARTS OF VIDARBHA,MOSTLY CONVECTIVE, PATCHY,WITH THUNDERSTORM IN SOME PARTS OF VIDARBHA WILL BE THERE.

WE STILL NEED TO BE CAUTIOUS REGARDING SOWING BUT IN SOUTH VID (CHANDRAPUR REGN) FARMERS CAN SAFELY GO IN FOR SOWING AFTER 05th JULY.

RAINFALL ACTIVITY MOSTLY DURING EVENING Hrs MAY START IN NAGPUR AND AROUND WILL START FROM FRIDAY 04th JULY AND WILL EXTEND FOR ABOUT A WEEK. FROM THE START.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

Monsoon in Nagpur region,present situation

WITH THE ONSET OF MONSOON BEING DECLARED ON 19th JUNE 2014, COVERING MOST OF VID INCLUDING NGP, A MONSOON-BREAK LIKE SITUATION SEEMS TO BE IN THE OFFING.
THAT IS WHY NEW TERMS IN METEOROLOGY LIKE 'DRY MONSOON' GAINS MOMENTUM.
THE LAST WEEK OF JUNE 2014 IN THE NGP REGN WILL SEE THE DAY TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE WITH UPPER WINDS BEING MAINLY W-NWly, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WEEK END.
BEYOND THIS THERE IS, AT PRESENT, NO SUBSTANTIAL ADVANCEMENT OF MONSOON.
FARMERS IN THE REGION MAY STILL HOLD FROM SOWING TILL AT LEAST TWO GOOD SPELLS OF RAIN, UPON REVIVAL OF MONSOON.
Milind Phadke
+919890317557
milind1966@gmail.com

MONSOON IN 2014 FOR THE NAGPUR REGION

THE MONSOON IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ‘DRY’IN 2014, AS IT IS WELL KNOWN, THE MUCH HYPED AND PUBLICIZED EL-NINO FACTOR.

FOR ALL THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT ARE CHANGING WORLD WIDE, DEPENDING UPON THE GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS NEW TERMS HAVE TO BE COINED FOR METEOROLOGY LIKE ‘COLD-SUMMER’, ‘WARM-WINTER’,’DRY-MONSOON’ ETC.

MONSOON IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED AS SET OVER VID AND CHTG REGN PROBABLY COVERING NAGPUR ALSO.

SOME FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE SET (NOT ALL) FOR ADVANCE OF MONSOON FROM THE PRESENT NLM.

IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE THE ONSET OF MONSOON IN 2014 IT CAN BE DONE BEFORE 21^ST OF 22^ND JUNE FOR NAGPUR.

HOWEVER, IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE ONSET DRY SPELL WILL FOLLOW AND THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DUE TO UPPER WINDS TURNING AGAIN Wly-NWly.

THE FARMERS ARE ADVISED TO REFRAIN FROM SOWING TILL 1^ST WEEK OF JULY, TO AVOID LOSSES.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

Orders for payment of Dearness Allowance and Ad hoc Bonus 2013

Dear All,

Please enjoy the Navaratri festival, Durga Pooja festival, Dusshera festival and Deepawali festival. The orders for payment of DA and Bonus are enclosed here with.

Wish you all a very Happy Festival season ahead.

Regards.

Milind Phadke

+91989317557

milind1966@gmail.com

Happy Independence Day

Only trace rainfall will occur in the evening hours at Nagpur on the India Independence day 2013.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

RESPITE IN RAINFALL FOR FOUR DAYS IN THE NAGPUR REGION

 SOME RELIEF FROM THE ALMOST INCESSANT RAINS IN THE NAGPUR REGION WILL BE A MATTER OF JOY FOR THE CITIZENS AND FARMERS IN PARTICULAR.

THE RAINS ARE TAKING A SHORT PERIOD OF REST FROM Sat. 27th JULY (A/N) BEFORE AGAIN; NOW UNPLEASANT; REVIVAL FROM 01st AUG.

HOW EVER GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN NEXT 48 hrs STARTING TODAY A/N.

THE 25-26 & 26-27 OVERNIGHT RAINS WILL ONLY ADD TO THE ALREADY EXCESS RAINS IN THE REGION ADDING TO THE WOES AND WORRIES OF WET DROUGHT IN THE REGION.(The pics here may or may-NOT have relevant references)

Milind Phadke,

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

CAT Jabalpur Case--DAS Committee report to be implemented in six months

THIS IS a WIN of All SA s AM-II s and AM-I s

More updates as and when they are received.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

RAINFALL IN NAGPUR & VIDARBHA IN THE THIRD WEEK OF JULY 2013

DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE BAY OF BENGAL (N/NW) AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LASH THE VIDARBHA REGION, MANY A TIMES HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY.

THE RAINS STARTING 17th EVENING WILL CONTINUE WELL PAST MIDNIGHT TILL EARLY MORNING OF 18th, TAKE A BREAK AND AGAIN MAKE THEIR PRESENCE FEEL ON 19th AND 20th INTERMITTENTLY FOR THE WHOLE DAY.

THE SUNDAY MOOD WILL ALSO WILL BE SPOILED IN THE EVENING TIME WITH RAINS.

ALL IN ALL, THE QUANTITY OF RAIN WILL NOT BE AS MAGNIFICANT AS THAT OF YESTERDAY'S/TODAY'S RAIN, BUT IT WILL SURELY BE A WET WEEK WITH MOST OF THE TIME OVERCAST SKIES.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

RAINFALL IN THE FIRST WEEK OF 'AASHAADH' MONTH AT NAGPUR

THE 'AASHAAD' & 'SHRAAVAN' MONTHS IN THE HINDU CALENDAR (ALMANAC) GIVES RAINS ACROSS INDIA; AS MUCH AS 80% OF THE TOTAL MONSOON RAINS OCCUR IN THESE TWO MONTHS.

THE 'AASHAAD' IS STARTING FROM TUESDAY AND THE NAGPUR WHICH WAS POISED FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND (THE END OF 'JYESHTHA' MONTH), THE NAGPUR SKIES, TODAY; ARE SLATED TO BE CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATE; HEAVILY IN SOME PARTS OF CITY AS THE LARGE AND TOWERING CUMULOUS SEEN FROM THE MORNING, IS SLOWLY BUILDING UP AND THE SUPPLY OF HEAT; FROM THE GROUND; DUE TO RADIATION; CONTINUES.

BY THE DAY END; IT WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO GIVE THUNDER/LIGHTENING IN THE EVENING HOURS; TODAY.

THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WET AS WELL; BECAUSE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DAILY; MOSTLY DURING EVENING/LATE EVENING/NIGHT HOURS.

THE DRY BULB TEMP TO REMAIN 30Deg Cel AND ABOVE WITH HUMIDITY(Rel) 80% OR MORE, WE MAY ENTER INTO BREAK-MONSOON PHASE IN THE COMING WEEK/S.

THE PICTURE IS MORE OR LESS THE SAME IN OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIA (250 Km radius from Nagpur).

SOME FAIR WEATHER CONDITION ON 13^th AND 14^th JULY 2013 (the atmospheric instability is reducing) AT NAGPUR, WILL AGAIN MAKE WEEKEND ENJOYABLE.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

ANOTHER SPELL OF REDUCED RAIN IN NAGPUR REGION

AFTER RAINING HEAVILY FOR ALMOST TWO DAYS NOW, THE RAINS WILL REDUCE IN THE NEXT WEEK AND THE MAX TEMP WILL RISE BY ABOUT 7-8 Deg CEL WITH HUMIDITY (RELATIVE) AROUND 60-70%.

 

THE 187.4 mm RAINFALL RECORDED AT NAGPUR IN LAST 24 hrs IS ALMOST EQUIVALENT TO MONTHLY TOTAL R/F FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE, THOUGH NOT HIGHEST IN 24 hrs.

SINCE THE LOW PR AREA IS SHIFTING NW wards, THERE WILL BE REDUCED R/F ACTIVITY FROM 27th A/F TILL NEXT TUESDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL FEW DROPS OF RAIN (REMEMBER this is monsoon season) till 30TH JUNE.

THIS WILL LEAVE SOME TIME FOR THE FARMERS TO SOW THE SEEDS IN THEIR FIELDS, FOR WHICH IT IS THE RIPE TIME NOW.

THE ADVANCEMENT OF MONSOON COVERING ENTIRE INDIA IN ABOUT 20 DAYS, IS UNUSUAL THOUGH IN THIS DECADE, IS ALSO A PHENOMENA FOR RE SEARCHING, WHERE A SHIFTING (delaying Onset) OF MONSOON; AND SO THE SOWING SEASONS; WAS NOTICEABLE.

I REMEMBER IN PAIN ALL THOSE WHO LEFT FOR HEAVENLY ABODE IN THE MAYHEM IN UTTARKHAND. INTERESTINGLY GOOGLE'S CONTRIBUTION (in the following link) IS PRAISE WORTHY. :-  http://www.google.org/crisisresponse/uttarakhand-flood-2013.html

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

RECEDING RAIN IN VIDARBHA IN THE SECOND WEEK OF MONSOON 2013

THE INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE QUANTITY OF RAINFALL WILL REDUCE IN THE NEXT WEEK OVER VID AS A WHOLE.

QUANTITATIVELY THE RAINS WILL MAKE FEEL THEIR PRESENCE ON & OFF, REMINDING US THAT WE ARE ENTERING INTO THE SECOND/THIRD WEEK OF MONSOON.

HOWEVER THE NAGPUR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY AND WE WILL GET SOME RESPITE FROM VERY GOOD FIRST SPELL OF RAINS AT NAGPUR.

THE FIGUREWISE ESTIMATED PRECIPITABLE WATER IS AS FOLLOWS:-(for NAGPUR):-

16/06/2013                                          4.0mm

17/06/2013                                          4.0mm

18&19/06/2013                No(significant)rain

20/06/2013                                          0.5mm

21/06/2013(A/N)                                 3.0mm

22/06/2013                                          0.4mm

THE MAX TEMPS WILL SEE A RISE OF ABOUT 10 DEG CEL AND MIN ABOUT 04 DEG CEL (COMPARED TO TODAY’S TEMPS) TOWARDS THE WEEK END.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT VARIATION ELSE WHERE IN THE NAGPUR REGION. Viz KATOL, ARVI etc AREA WILL GET T/S WITH RAINS ON 21^st AND 22^nd WITH APPROX 5-8 mm OF RAINS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE(compared to Nagpur) IN THE AMRAVATI & AKOLA REGION.

THE RAINS IN THE VIDARBHA REGION WILL SEE A RECEDING TREND IN THE NEXT WEEK TILL 22^nd JUNE 2013.

THE FARMERS ARE ADVISED TO WAIT FOR SECOND GOOD SPELL OF RAINS WHICH WILL ENSURE SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE FOR GERMINATIONOF SEEDS FOR A BUMPER HARVEST.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

SOUTH WEST MONSOON IN 2013 AT NAGPUR

THE SOUTH WEST MONSOON IS ACTIVE IN NAGPUR AND AROUND.

THE ENTIRE VIDARBHA REGION HAS RECEIVED GOOD RAINFALL IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MONSOON IN 2013.

THE SW MONSOON ENTERED IN VID ON 08th JUNE 2013 AND NAGPUR ON 10th JUNE 2013. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIA ALSO AND THE NORTHERLY MARCH OF SWM CONTINUES WITH GOOD SPEED. THE DAILY SPATIAL RAINFALL MAP SHOWS NEAR NORMAL(+IveANAMOLY). THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT NAGPUR, POST AFTERNOON ON 12th JUNE 2013 AND 13th A/N THROUGH THE NIGHT OF 13/14 AND MORNING HOURS OF 14th JUNE 2013 WITH FEW RAINS ON 15th EVENING AS WELL. A PLEASENT WEEKEND ON SUNDAY JUNE THE 16th 2013 IS IN STORE WITH A COOL BREEZE OF AROUND 15Kmph AND CLOUDY SKIES.

THE RAINFALL ACROSS TIME SERIES AS ON DATE IS IN EXCESS OF NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL INDIA REGION. (map source:-IMD)

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com