INDEPTH PROJECTION FOR PRECIPITATION TILL THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY 2012

THE STRENGTH OF MJO IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND ANOMALOUS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS DOMINANT OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT.

THE ELNINO CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE LATE SPETEMBER PERIOD, PRESENTLY THOUGH THE ENSO IS NEUTRAL.(THE ELNINO IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS).

AFTER EXHAUSTIVE ANALYSIS, PRESENTLY THE FORECASTING MODELS SUGGESTS THE FOLLOWING:-

28/06/2012 M/E:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN.*

29/06/2012 MORNING:- NO CHANCE OF RAIN*

EVENING CHANCE OF VERY LITTLE RAIN AT NAGPUR (3-5mm), BUT WESTERN PARTS OF VIDARBHA TILL AKOLA AND BEYOND(20-30mm) AND SOUTH CHHATTISGARH (AROUND JAGDALPUR) WILL EXPERIENCE GOOD RAINS (50-60mm).

30/06/2012 M/E:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN AT NAGPUR. IN THE EVENING, EAST OF NAGPUR IN VIDARBHA (AROUND GONDIA) WILL GET LITTLE RAIN (10-15mm) AND GOOD RAINS IN SOUTH CHHATTISGARH (30-50mm).

01/07/2012 MORNING:-NO CHANCE OF RAIN*

01/07/2012:-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE EVENING IN THE ENTIRE MAHARASHTRA AND CHHATTISGARH.

ENTIRE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA TILL MUMBAI WILL EXPERIENCE HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY (AT SOME PLACES) RAINFALL.

AREAS AROUND PUNE AND KOLHAPUR WILL ALSO GET VERY GOOD RAINS (50-60mm).

02/07/2012:-MORNING:-THE COASTAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH FEW PARTS IN VIDARBHA AND CHHATTISGARH (EAST OF NAGPUR AND SOUTH OF NAGPUR, BUT NOT AT NAGPUR).

02/07/2012:-EVENING:-UPTO 30mm ALMOST AT EVERY PLACE IN THE ENTIRE VIDARBHA AND CHHATTISGARH, INCLUDING NAGPUR.

WESTERN MAHARASHTRA, PARTICULARLY AREA FROM PUNE TO KOLHAPUR AND UPTO GOA WILL GET AROUND 50-80mmOF RAIN IN SOME POCKETS AND IN CHTG, AREAS AROUND JAGDALPUR WILL GET UPTO 90mm OF RAIN.

03/07/2012:-MORNING:-FEW RAINS IN E VID* AND SOME PARTS OF CHTG.

03/07/2012:-EVENING:- SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS EVENING WITH REDUCED INTENSITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.

04/07/2012:-MORNING:-NO RAINS AT NAGPUR AND LIGHT RAINS IN CHTG TO CONTINUE.

04/07/2012:-EVENING:- AGAIN,SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS EVENING WITH STILL MORE REDUCED INTENSITY AND QUANTITY OF PRECIPITATION.

05/07/2012:-MORNING:-SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS MORNING.

05/07/2012:-EVENING:-NO RAINS AT NAGPUR BUT AREAS IN CHTG WILL CONTINUE TO GET RAINS.

06/07/2012:-MORNING:-UPTO 10-20mm OF RAIN AT NAGPUR.

RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN CHTG AND SOME PARTS OF VID BUT RAINS BEYOND AKOLA AND INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA WILL RECEDE IN THE MORNING.

06/07/2012:-EVENING:-ENTIRE VID AND CHTG WILL GET GOOD TO VERY GOOD RAINS (UPTO 30mms EACH IN VID) FOR THE NEXT 24 hrs. CHTG WILL GET HEAVY TO VERY RAINS (50-80m) IN THE EVENING OF 07^th JUL. 2012.

FARMERS IN VID CAN START SOWING THEIR SEEDS FROM FIRST WEEK-END OF JULY 2012.

(AROUND 10% DEVIATION IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND 20% IN TIMING IS ASSUMED,*=NAGPUR).

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

2nd WEEK (WEAK??) OF MONSOON IN NAGPUR

WE ARE ENTERING A BREAK-MONSOON PHASE FROM 25^th IN CENTRAL INDIA, AS THE RINFALL HAS STARTED RECEEDING SIGNIFICANTLY.

A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT RAIPUR-BILASPUR IN CHHATTISGARH REGION FROM 22^nd TO 24^th JUNE 2012.

THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR UP/BIHAR/JHARKHAND WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY.

THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS UPTO 850mb WILL CONTINUE TO BE Wly AND THE WEEK THROUGHOUT WILL BE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST AT NAGPUR AND CENTRAL INDIA.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

milind1966@gmail.com

DELAYED MONSOON IN 2012 AT NAGPUR

ALL THE METEOROLOGISTS ARE VERY CAUTIOUSLY TREADING TO DERIVE THE RATHER INCONSISTENT OUTPUT OF SEVERAL FORECASTING MODELS, MORE SO FOR DECLARING THE ONSET OF MONSOON.

THE CHART PATTERNS PREDICT SOME RAIN FALL TO OCCUR IN VIDARBHA (ESPECIALLY IN NAGPUR) ON SAT. THE 16^th JUNE 2012 AND SUN THE 17^th JUNE.

THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE DAY(SAT EVE. TILL SUN EVE.) MAY NOT EXCEED 10-12 mms BUT THE NAGPURIANS WILL BE GREETED BY MORNING RAINS WHEN THEY WAKE UP ON SUNDAY.

SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR PRESENCE ON 18^th JUNE 2012 AND 19^th JUNE 2012 WITH A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM.

 IF WE ARE IN A HURRY TO DECLARE THE ONSET OF MONSOON AT NAGPUR, IT CAN BE DONE ON 17^th , EVEN THOUGH ALL THE PARAMETERS (CRITERIA) MAY NOT BE SATISFIED FOR DECLARING THE ONSET OF MONSOON.

THE WEEK TILL 21^st JUNE WILL BE CLOUDY AND THERE AFTER TILL 25^th JUNE 2012 ABSOLUTELY DRY WITH SCORCHING SUN AND HUMIDITY IN THE RANGE OF 40-60% MAKING THE FEEL-VERY-UNCOFRTABLE.

THE SOWING SEASONS ARE CHANGING AND THEREFORE THE FARMERS IN VIDARBHA SHOULD NOT MAKE A HURRY TO SOW THEIR SEEDS TILL THE SECOND/THIRD WEEK OF JULY 2012.

PRESENTLY THERE IS AN INDICATION OF EASTERLIES AT 200hpa BUT NOT STRONG TO BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRECIPITATE. THE POSITION MIGHT IMPROVE BY JUNE END OR JULY FIRST WEEK.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557