NAGPUR WEATHER

SOME VERY GOOD RAINFALL EXPECTED TOMMORROW JULY THE 05th 2011 AFTERNOON TILL LATE MIDNIGHT. ALL THE PARAMETERS SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN. THE WIND IS SWly THE RH IS ABOUT 90% SLP ABOUT 998 Hpa TOTAL-TOTALS etc ALL IN FAVOUR OF GOOD TO VERY GOOD RAIN. (presently in training at HQ IMD New Delhi and due to limited and security locked access to internet it may not be possible to update on daily basis. Pls bear with till 20th July2011)

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER

THE NAGPUR WEATHER WILL SEE SOME INCURSION OF HUMIDITY AS A RESULT OF WHICH SOME GODD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON 18th JUNE 2011 AND 19th JUNE 2011AND MAY EXCEED 25 mm OF RAINFALL. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW 30 DEG CEL AND THE GROUND WINDS WILL BE SOUTH WESTERLY TO WESTERLY. BUT THE UPPER WINDS FROM 850 Hpa ONWARDS UPTO 500 Hpa ARE LARGELY WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTH WESTERLY, WHICH DOES NOT SATISFY THE CRITERIA FOR DECLARATION OF MONSOON. AS SUCH ACTUAL MONSOON CURRENTS WHICH ARE DELAYED MAY NOT BECOME ACTIVE FOR ABOUT A WEEK MORE.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER

A BIT OF RAINFALL ON 13th JUNE ALONGWITH THUNDERSTORM AND ON 14th JUNE 2011(ABOUT 10 mm) WILL HELP TO DROP THE MAXIMUM TEMPS IN NAGPUR TO ABOUT 08 TO 10 DEG CEL. DIS-ORGANIZED WIND PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS UPTO 500mb WILL NOT BRING MONSOON RAINS TILL 15th JUNE 2011. A SLIGHT THUNDER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ONLY FEW DROPS OF RAIN ON 09th JUNE 2011. DELAYED MONSOON AS PREDICTED IN MY EARLIER BLOG POSTS IS PROVED.
Milind Phadke
+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER

PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NAGPUR IN THE NEXT WEEK UPTILL 07th JUNE 2011. WITH HUMIDITY ON THE RISE BIT BY BIT IT WILL BE QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE AND UNBEARABLE.

20% CHANCE OF RAIN ON 03rd JUNE BUT THE PRCIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IS VERY LESS NOT EXCEEDING 04mm.

30-40% CHANBCE OF RAIN ON 04th JUNE AND THE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENTS MAY BE AROUND 2.5 mm.

20% CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY 05th JUNE 2011 AND WATER CONTENT MAY BE AROUND 02mm.

60-70% CHANCE OF GOOD RAINS OF AROUND 25mm ON 07th MAY 2011.

Milind Phadke

+919890317557

NAGPUR WEATHER & RUN UP TO THE MONSOON

PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NAGPUR TILL 30th MAY 2011. THE GROUND WIND IS MOSTLY SET TO N'ly AND FALL OF SURFACE PRESSURE ABOUT 10 mb OVER THE WEEK IS ANTICIPATED. DAY TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RISE FROM 27th AND THUNDERSTORM WITH/WITHOUT RAIN IS EXPECTED ON 24th AND 26th EXTENDED TILL MORNING OF 27th MAY 2011. HOT WINDS MAY BLOW ON 30th AND 31st MAY 2011.

**********************************************************************************

REDUCED RAINFALL IN 2011

DUE TO LA NINA CONDITIONS THERE WAS AN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN INDIA IN THE LAST YEAR BUT IS NOW RETURNING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO THE ENSO (EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) INDEX BEING 0.4 DEG. DUE TO THIS THE DAY MAXIMUM IN THE SUMMER WAS (IS) TOO LOW AND THE SUSTAINED HEATING IS NOT BUILD UP AS 'HEAT LOW' IN THE NORTHWEST INDIA, ADJOINING PAKISTAN, WHICH IS BEING KEENLY SOUGHT AFTER BY METEOROLOGISTS. TILL THE END OF MAY THERE ARE NO SIGN OF HEATWAVES AND WE ARE ACTUALLY EXPERIENCING PLEASENT AND WET WEATHER CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF DRY AND HOT WEATHER.

THIS WILL AFFECT THE MONSOON AND WILL HAVE A REDUCING EFFECT.

THE SW MONSOON WILL HAVE A WEAKER AND DELAYED START TO BE FOLLOWED BY A BURST FROM MID-SEASON TILL THE END. THUS WE WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL THAN NORMAL, IN SOME POCKETS AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE NE INDIA.

THE HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE (OF LA NIÑA) DURING THE LAST 150 YEARS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DISAPPEAR IN THE SUMMER, THEN THEY COME BACK AND THE LA NINA PATTERN COULD REDEVELOP NEXT WINTER, ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RESEARCHER KLAUS WOLTER. HE SAID "HISTORICALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT TWO-YEAR LA NIÑAS, THE SECOND YEAR IS USUALLY MUCH LOWER THAN THE FIRST YEAR.” THIS COULD BE ILLUSTRATED BY THE FACT THAT WHILE NIÑO 3.4 INDEX HAS TURNED NEUTRAL, ANOTHER KEY LA NIÑA INDEX, SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) REMAINS STRONGLY POSITIVE. THE LATEST 30-DAY SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) VALUE (+30.2) IS ONLY A LITTLE SHORT OF THE HIGHEST APRIL MONTHLY VALUE ON RECORD (+31.7, RECORDED IN 1904), AND HAS REMAINED CONSISTENTLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

THIS MEANS THE CHANCES OF NE MONSOON BEING ON THE ABOVE NORMAL SIDE ARE HIGH. WINTER WILL BE COLD BUT IT WOULD BE MUCH MILDER THAN THE RECORD COLD LAST YEAR. 



FALLING IN LINE, THE VIDARBHA WILL MISS THE NORMAL ONSET DATE AND IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL BE BEYOND THE 10th JUNE 2011. 

Milind Phadke

+919890317557