Global hazards outlook

The above pic shared is from climate prediction centre courtesy NOAA and allgood and the probability of formation of tropical cyclone till month end (may 2026) is 20% to 40% and no major hazardous weather is predicted for India and around.

Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.

Conditions favourable for onset of Monsoon over Andamans

 Conditions are favourable for advancement of Monsoon-2026 over Andaman and Nicobar islands and further into BoB.

These inputs are from my friend and senior colleague Mr a s khan :--

Good news: Conditions are becoming highly favorable for monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during May 20-30. As per GFS, a nice upper-level anticyclone is likely to form over Central India, pushing the westerly jet stream further north and stabilizing easterlies over most parts of South India. This indicates that the mean tropospheric meridional temperature gradient is likely to reverse rapidly after May 20 and will also allow the angular momentum conserving overturning monsoon circulation to stabilize over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and some parts of South India by the end of the month.  

Video: 150 hPa winds in GFS on May 25 from Windy

Courtesy 👆🏻Shri AS Khan

Monsoon 2026

As analysed earlier the weather patterns behave differently every year.

A low pressure area in BoB around mid-may could trigger early arrival of monsoon over India. 

Various weather models indicate faster advancement of monsoon in 2026 over Andamans and Kerala. 

This could also be recorded as earliest ever onset of monsoon over India. 

The rainfall variability in 2026 may be very wide from drought zones to flood zones. Central India specially Nagpur and around is more likely to be normal with some variability of longer than usual break-monsoon phases, W-vid is very likely to see above normal rainfall in monsoon-2026.

Always refer to IMD.

Insights to Monsoon 2026

Amidst widely circulated news about EL NINO making it's presence felt, probably strongest ever,as reported manytimes elsewhere, the pre-monsoon activities has begun since last 2-3 days in central India and noticeable downfall in maximum temperatures alongwith changes in the patterns of upper wind flow and some cloud coverage shows that peak-summer is almost over. Though year 2026 is predicted to be EL NINO year the Monsoon in Vidarbha region is likely to be normal and parts of West vid like Akola Buldhana may record more than normal or excess rainfall in the season. There is no need to panick for farmers of Vidarbha region. Always refer to IMD for weather forecast.