Thank You!! Heartfelt Thanks to The Director General of Meteorology..Shri K G Ramesh Sir


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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

NAGPUR WEATHER & RUN UP TO THE MONSOON

PARTLY CLOUDY TO MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NAGPUR TILL 30th MAY 2011. THE GROUND WIND IS MOSTLY SET TO N'ly AND FALL OF SURFACE PRESSURE ABOUT 10 mb OVER THE WEEK IS ANTICIPATED. DAY TEMPERATURE WILL BEGIN TO RISE FROM 27th AND THUNDERSTORM WITH/WITHOUT RAIN IS EXPECTED ON 24th AND 26th EXTENDED TILL MORNING OF 27th MAY 2011. HOT WINDS MAY BLOW ON 30th AND 31st MAY 2011.
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REDUCED RAINFALL IN 2011
DUE TO LA NINA CONDITIONS THERE WAS AN ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL IN INDIA IN THE LAST YEAR BUT IS NOW RETURNING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS TO THE ENSO (EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) INDEX BEING 0.4 DEG. DUE TO THIS THE DAY MAXIMUM IN THE SUMMER WAS (IS) TOO LOW AND THE SUSTAINED HEATING IS NOT BUILD UP AS 'HEAT LOW' IN THE NORTHWEST INDIA, ADJOINING PAKISTAN, WHICH IS BEING KEENLY SOUGHT AFTER BY METEOROLOGISTS. TILL THE END OF MAY THERE ARE NO SIGN OF HEATWAVES AND WE ARE ACTUALLY EXPERIENCING PLEASENT AND WET WEATHER CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF DRY AND HOT WEATHER.
THIS WILL AFFECT THE MONSOON AND WILL HAVE A REDUCING EFFECT.

THE SW MONSOON WILL HAVE A WEAKER AND DELAYED START TO BE FOLLOWED BY A BURST FROM MID-SEASON TILL THE END. THUS WE WILL RECEIVE LESS RAINFALL THAN NORMAL, IN SOME POCKETS AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION IN THE NE INDIA.
THE HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE (OF LA NIÑA) DURING THE LAST 150 YEARS HAVE A TENDENCY TO DISAPPEAR IN THE SUMMER, THEN THEY COME BACK AND THE LA NINA PATTERN COULD REDEVELOP NEXT WINTER, ACCORDING TO CLIMATE RESEARCHER KLAUS WOLTER. HE SAID "HISTORICALLY, IF YOU LOOK AT TWO-YEAR LA NIÑAS, THE SECOND YEAR IS USUALLY MUCH LOWER THAN THE FIRST YEAR.” THIS COULD BE ILLUSTRATED BY THE FACT THAT WHILE NIÑO 3.4 INDEX HAS TURNED NEUTRAL, ANOTHER KEY LA NIÑA INDEX, SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) REMAINS STRONGLY POSITIVE. THE LATEST 30-DAY SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX (SOI) VALUE (+30.2) IS ONLY A LITTLE SHORT OF THE HIGHEST APRIL MONTHLY VALUE ON RECORD (+31.7, RECORDED IN 1904), AND HAS REMAINED CONSISTENTLY HIGH THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
THIS MEANS THE CHANCES OF NE MONSOON BEING ON THE ABOVE NORMAL SIDE ARE HIGH. WINTER WILL BE COLD BUT IT WOULD BE MUCH MILDER THAN THE RECORD COLD LAST YEAR. 

FALLING IN LINE, THE VIDARBHA WILL MISS THE NORMAL ONSET DATE AND IN ALL PROBABILITY WILL BE BEYOND THE 10th JUNE 2011. 
Milind Phadke
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